CAR @ VGK

NHL T-Mobile Arena ·{'default': 'Paradise'} · SOG CAR 33 · 35 VGK

4–5

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (VGK) / 10 (CAR) games this season

CAR away

home VGK

74% 26%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 3-1

CAR

Away

Metric

VGK

Home

66-31

Record

52-48

68%

Win %

52%

3.6

GF/G

3.3

2.8

GA/G

3.0

WLWWW

LWWWW

Team totals

CAR

VGK

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
J Staal	1	1	2	5	3	1	5.49
S Aho	0	2	2	0	1	0	7.05
J Martinook	1	0	1	3	4	0	5.45
T Hall	1	0	1	3	2	0	7.65
A Svechnikov	1	0	1	3	5	-2	7.24
L Stankoven	0	1	1	0	4	-1	7.13

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
S Walker	0	0	1	5	6.65
K Miller	0	0	1	2	8.0
J Slavin	1	0	1	0	6.43
J Chatfield	0	1	4	1	7.29
S Gostisbehere	0	-1	1	1	6.19
A Nikishin	0	-2	0	5	3.28

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
B Bussi	18	19	0.947	1
F Andersen	12	16	0.750	4

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
M Marner	3	1	4	10	3	3	9.61
T Hertl	1	1	2	2	5	1	4.08
B Howden	0	1	1	3	6	2	6.1
W Karlsson	0	1	1	2	2	3	6.54
J Eichel	0	1	1	1	2	-1	9.15
C Sissons	0	0	0	1	5	0	2.96

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
S Theodore	1	1	3	3	1	7.95
B McNabb	0	2	3	0	1	4.81
R Andersson	0	0	-1	2	0	5.57
J Lauzon	0	0	-1	6	4	3.62
N Hanifin	0	0	-1	2	2	6.46
D Coghlan	0	0	-1	1	0	3.3

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Hill	0	0		0
C Hart	29	33	0.879	4

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	M Marner	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.34	0.69	2.2	0.7	9.6
2	J Eichel	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.34	0.52	2.4	0.9	9.2
3	S Jarvis	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.36	0.36	2.8	2.0	9.0
4	C Hart	goal	VGK vs CAR					8.8
5	P Dorofeyev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.31	0.46	2.1	0.4	8.1
6	K Miller	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.11	0.47	1.8		8.0
7	S Theodore	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.12	0.34	1.6		8.0
8	J Blake	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.29	0.40	2.2	1.0	7.7
9	T Hall	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.30	0.32	2.3	1.7	7.7
10	J Chatfield	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.10	0.28	1.6		7.3
11	N Ehlers	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.28	0.35	2.1	0.9	7.3
12	A Svechnikov	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.29	0.30	2.2	3.3	7.2
13	F Andersen	goal	CAR vs VGK					7.2
14	L Stankoven	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.30	0.26	2.2	2.0	7.1
15	S Aho	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.27	0.34	2.0	1.5	7.1
16	M Stone	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.27	0.39	1.8	2.0	7.0
17	S Walker	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.10	0.27	1.6		6.7
18	W Karlsson	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.23	0.38	1.8	0.6	6.5
19	N Hanifin	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.20	1.4		6.5
20	J Slavin	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.08	0.27	1.5		6.4
21	S Gostisbehere	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.08	0.31	1.7		6.2
22	B Howden	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.26	0.28	1.7	2.8	6.1
23	I Barbashev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.21	0.29	1.6	4.2	5.7
24	R Andersson	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.03	0.28	1.2		5.6
25	J Staal	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.23	0.26	1.5	3.9	5.5

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.