VGK @ CAR

NHL Lenovo Center ·{'default': 'Raleigh'} · SOG VGK 26 · 26 CAR

3–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (CAR) / 10 (VGK) games this season

VGK away

home CAR

35% 65%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-3

VGK

Away

Metric

CAR

Home

52-47

Record

65-31

53%

Win %

68%

3.3

GF/G

3.6

2.9

GA/G

2.8

WWWWW

LWWWW

Team totals

VGK

CAR

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
B Howden	2	0	2	3	1	1	5.64
M Marner	0	2	2	3	1	1	8.29
M Stone	1	0	1	3	0	1	6.04
I Barbashev	0	1	1	5	2	0	5.54
T Hertl	0	1	1	0	1	1	3.57
J Eichel	0	0	0	0	1	0	8.25

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
S Theodore	0	1	1	1	8.41
N Hanifin	1	1	4	1	6.02
J Lauzon	0	-1	2	3	3.39
R Andersson	0	0	2	0	5.66
D Coghlan	0	0	2	1	3.27
B McNabb	0	0	0	0	4.72

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
C Hart	22	26	0.846	4
A Hill	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
J Staal	1	0	1	2	7	-1	5.65
L Stankoven	1	0	1	2	3	-1	7.63
S Jarvis	1	0	1	2	3	0	9.61
M Jankowski	1	0	1	1	1	1	3.31
E Robinson	0	1	1	2	2	1	3.81
S Aho	0	1	1	4	4	0	7.37

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
J Chatfield	0	1	3	0	7.21
J Slavin	0	0	1	0	6.73
K Miller	0	-2	0	1	8.32
S Walker	0	-1	2	5	7.04
A Nikishin	0	-1	0	1	3.44
S Gostisbehere	2	0	0	0	6.46

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
F Andersen	23	26	0.885	3
B Bussi	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	F Andersen	goal	CAR vs VGK					10.0
2	S Jarvis	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.38	0.43	2.8	1.8	9.6
3	J Blake	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.36	0.45	2.5	1.3	9.0
4	C Hart	goal	VGK vs CAR					8.7
5	S Theodore	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.16	0.36	1.7		8.4
6	K Miller	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.12	0.48	1.9		8.3
7	M Marner	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.34	0.43	2.2	0.7	8.3
8	J Eichel	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.30	0.45	2.3	0.8	8.3
9	A Svechnikov	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.32	0.34	2.3	2.9	7.9
10	N Ehlers	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.31	0.42	2.0	1.0	7.7
11	L Stankoven	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.30	0.30	2.4	1.7	7.6
12	P Dorofeyev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.31	0.40	2.0	0.4	7.6
13	S Aho	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.29	0.39	2.0	1.2	7.4
14	J Chatfield	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.33	1.7		7.2
15	T Hall	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.28	0.31	2.1	1.6	7.1
16	S Walker	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.11	0.28	1.7		7.0
17	J Slavin	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.29	1.5		6.7
18	S Gostisbehere	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.32	1.8		6.5
19	M Stone	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.32	1.7	2.1	6.0
20	N Hanifin	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.17	1.3		6.0
21	W Karlsson	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.20	0.31	1.7	0.7	5.7
22	R Andersson	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.05	0.29	1.2		5.7
23	J Staal	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.22	0.30	1.5	4.5	5.7
24	B Howden	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.26	1.7	3.1	5.6
25	I Barbashev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.24	1.7	3.4	5.5

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.