VGK @ CAR

NHL Lenovo Center ·{'default': 'Raleigh'} · SOG VGK 23 · 29 CAR

5–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (CAR) / 10 (VGK) games this season

VGK away

home CAR

48% 52%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-2

VGK

Away

Metric

CAR

Home

51-47

Record

65-30

52%

Win %

68%

3.3

GF/G

3.6

2.9

GA/G

2.7

WWWWW

WWWWL

Team totals

VGK

CAR

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
B Howden	1	1	2	2	3	1	5.45
T Hertl	1	0	1	2	0	1	3.67
I Barbashev	1	0	1	3	8	0	5.43
W Karlsson	1	0	1	2	0	1	5.25
C Sissons	0	1	1	2	4	0	2.54
M Marner	0	1	1	1	0	0	8.67

Defense

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
R Andersson	0	0	1	0	1	5.69
S Theodore	1	2	2	2	0	7.45
N Hanifin	0	0	0	4	1	6.25
B McNabb	0	3	3	2	0	4.77
J Lauzon	0	0	-2	2	2	3.59
D Coghlan	0	0	-2	1	1	3.5

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
C Hart	25	29	0.862	4
A Hill	0	0		0

Player	G	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
N Ehlers	2	2	2	0	2	7.64
J Staal	1	1	3	3	0	5.51
A Svechnikov	0	0	1	3	-1	8.2
L Stankoven	0	0	2	2	0	7.83
S Aho	0	0	1	0	0	8.25
W Carrier	0	0	1	4	-1	2.73

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
K Miller	0	1	0	4	0	8.31
S Walker	0	0	-2	1	5	6.55
J Slavin	0	1	0	0	0	7.02
J Chatfield	0	2	1	3	2	7.54
S Gostisbehere	1	0	-1	2	1	6.22
A Nikishin	0	0	-1	0	1	3.91

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
B Bussi	0	0		0
F Andersen	18	23	0.783	5

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	S Jarvis	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.37	0.52	2.8	2.2	9.9
2	F Andersen	goal	CAR vs VGK					9.6
3	J Blake	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.36	0.48	2.5	1.4	9.2
4	M Marner	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.36	0.45	2.2	0.9	8.7
5	C Hart	goal	VGK vs CAR					8.6
6	J Eichel	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.33	0.43	2.2	1.2	8.3
7	K Miller	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.12	0.52	1.8		8.3
8	S Aho	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.32	0.43	2.3	1.5	8.3
9	A Svechnikov	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.33	0.35	2.4	3.4	8.2
10	L Stankoven	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.30	0.30	2.5	1.8	7.8
11	T Hall	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.31	0.34	2.2	1.5	7.7
12	N Ehlers	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.30	0.41	2.0	1.1	7.6
13	J Chatfield	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.11	0.36	1.8		7.5
14	P Dorofeyev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.27	0.45	2.0	0.5	7.5
15	S Theodore	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.08	0.28	1.6		7.5
16	J Slavin	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.31	1.6		7.0
17	S Walker	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.08	0.28	1.6		6.6
18	M Stone	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.24	0.34	1.8	2.0	6.4
19	N Hanifin	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.06	0.19	1.3		6.3
20	S Gostisbehere	defe	CAR vs VGK	0.09	0.32	1.7		6.2
21	R Andersson	defe	VGK vs CAR	0.04	0.29	1.2		5.7
22	J Staal	forw	CAR vs VGK	0.20	0.29	1.6	4.7	5.5
23	B Howden	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.23	1.6	3.3	5.5
24	I Barbashev	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.22	0.25	1.5	3.9	5.4
25	W Karlsson	forw	VGK vs CAR	0.17	0.29	1.6	0.9	5.3

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.