MTL @ TBL

NHL Benchmark International Arena ·{'default': 'Tampa'} · SOG MTL 19 · 23 TBL

4–3

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (TBL) / 10 (MTL) games this season

MTL away

home TBL

37% 63%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-2

MTL

Away

Metric

TBL

Home

48-34

Record

50-32

59%

Win %

61%

3.5

GF/G

3.5

3.1

GA/G

2.8

LWLWW

LWWLL

Team totals

MTL

TBL

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
J Slafkovský	3	0	3	7	2	-1
C Caufield	0	2	2	2	2	-1
N Suzuki	0	2	2	0	1	-1
J Anderson	1	0	1	1	4	1
I Demidov	0	1	1	2	2	0
A Newhook	0	0	0	1	4	0

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
L Hutson	1	-1	1	0
M Matheson	1	1	6	4
K Guhle	0	-1	1	3
A Carrier	1	1	2	3
J Struble	0	0	0	2
A Xhekaj	0	0	1	5

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Dobes	20	23	0.870	3
J Fowler	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
J Guentzel	0	3	3	4	0	1
B Hagel	2	0	2	3	1	1
N Kucherov	0	2	2	5	2	-1
B Point	0	0	0	0	0	-1
C Perry	0	0	0	1	1	0
C Geekie	0	0	0	0	1	0

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
D Raddysh	1	0	-1	0	4
J Moser	0	0	-1	2	3
R McDonagh	0	1	1	1	4
E Cernak	0	0	1	1	4
E Lilleberg	0	0	0	0	5
C D'Astous	0	0	0	0	1

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Vasilevskiy	15	19	0.789	4
J Johansson	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2026-04-14) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	N Suzuki	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.39	0.58	2.5	0.7	9.9
2	C Caufield	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.39	0.45	2.8	0.3	9.8
3	J Slafkovský	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.36	0.50	2.5	0.9	9.3
4	J Dobes	goal	MTL vs PHI					7.6
5	L Hutson	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.08	0.37	1.4		6.9
6	I Demidov	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.22	0.34	1.9	0.4	6.4
7	A Newhook	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.16	0.23	1.6	1.0	4.9
8	K Guhle	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.04	0.13	0.9		4.6
9	J Evans	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.12	0.19	1.2	1.2	3.8
10	O Kapanen	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.09	0.18	1.2	0.6	3.5
11	J Struble	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.03	0.10	0.8		3.5
12	Z Bolduc	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.10	0.15	1.1	1.8	3.3
13	K Dach	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.10	0.13	1.2	1.9	3.3
14	A Texier	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.10	0.12	1.2	1.9	3.2
15	A Engstrom	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.03	0.08	0.8		3.0
16	B Gallagher	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.09	0.11	1.1	1.3	3.0
17	A Xhekaj	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.03	0.10	0.6		2.8
18	J Veleno	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.07	0.09	0.8	3.3	2.3

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.