BOS @ BUF

NHL KeyBank Center ·{'default': 'Buffalo'} · SOG BOS 27 · 35 BUF

4–2

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (BUF) / 10 (BOS) games this season

BOS away

home BUF

41% 59%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-3

BOS

Away

Metric

BUF

Home

45-38

Record

51-32

54%

Win %

61%

3.3

GF/G

3.5

3.1

GA/G

2.9

LWWLL

WLWWW

Team totals

BOS

BUF

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
V Arvidsson	2	0	2	5	1	1
C Mittelstadt	0	2	2	2	1	1
D Pastrnak	0	2	2	0	0	0
P Zacha	1	0	1	2	1	1
M Geekie	1	0	1	1	1	1
S Kuraly	0	1	1	0	0	1

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
H Lindholm	0	-1	4	0
C McAvoy	1	2	6	4
N Zadorov	0	1	2	4
A Peeke	0	1	1	0
J Aspirot	2	1	4	3
M Lohrei	0	-2	1	1

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Korpisalo	0	0		0
J Swayman	33	35	0.943	2

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
P Krebs	1	0	1	1	2	1
A Tuch	0	1	1	3	3	1
B Malenstyn	0	1	1	0	2	0
J Zucker	0	0	0	0	3	0
J Greenway	0	0	0	0	4	0
J Norris	0	0	0	1	2	-1

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
R Dahlin	0	1	-1	0	4
B Byram	1	0	0	0	1
O Power	0	1	1	0	1
M Samuelsson	0	0	-2	0	0
C Timmins	0	0	0	5	1
L Stanley	0	0	0	1	1

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
U Luukkonen	16	20	0.800	4
A Lyon	7	7	1.000	0

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2026-04-14) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	D Pastrnak	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.39	0.73	2.8	0.7	11.2
2	R Dahlin	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.21	0.62	3.1		10.7
3	A Tuch	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.37	0.48	2.8	0.9	9.7
4	T Thompson	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.35	0.52	2.7	0.8	9.6
5	J Quinn	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.33	0.38	3.1	0.9	9.3
6	C McAvoy	defe	BOS vs NJD	0.12	0.48	1.9		8.6
7	J Swayman	goal	BOS vs NJD					8.5
8	U Luukkonen	goal	BUF vs CHI					8.4
9	V Arvidsson	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.30	0.37	2.2	0.6	7.7
10	P Zacha	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.26	0.45	2.1	0.8	7.6
11	E Lindholm	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.27	0.39	2.0	0.7	7.3
12	M Geekie	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.29	0.32	2.0	0.9	7.1
13	R McLeod	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.24	0.49	1.7	0.2	7.0
14	B Byram	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.09	0.46	1.6		7.0
15	J Zucker	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.25	0.33	2.0	0.7	6.8
16	Z Benson	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.23	0.34	2.1	0.6	6.7
17	O Power	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.08	0.41	1.4		6.4
18	J Norris	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.22	0.31	1.9	1.3	6.3
19	M Samuelsson	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.09	0.30	1.4		6.2
20	F Minten	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.22	0.29	1.9	1.0	6.2
21	C Timmins	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.07	0.25	1.3		5.8
22	H Lindholm	defe	BOS vs NJD	0.07	0.22	1.1		5.2
23	L Stanley	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.07	0.26	1.3		5.1
24	J Doan	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.18	0.23	1.6	1.2	5.1
25	A Peeke	defe	BOS vs NJD	0.06	0.17	1.0		5.1

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.