TOR @ OTT
NHL
Canadian Tire Centre
·{'default': 'Ottawa'}
·
SOG TOR 20 · 38 OTT
1–3
Final
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Based on last 10 (OTT) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR
away
home
OTT
24%
76%
baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.
Season comparison
H2H this season: 2-1TOR
Away
Metric
OTT
Home
32-49
Record
43-38
40%
Win %
53%
3.1
GF/G
3.4
3.7
GA/G
3.0
LLLLL
L5
LWWWW
Team totals
TOR
OTT
20
Shots
38
28
Hits
27
13
Blocks
7
3
Takeaways
5
22
Giveaways
17
6
PIM
4
Box score
Forwards
| Player | G | A | P | SOG | Hit | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Nylander | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| J Quillan | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| E Cowan | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| M Domi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| S Lorentz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -1 |
| M Knies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Defense
| Player | G | A | +/- | BLK | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Ekman-Larsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| M Rielly | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| J McCabe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| T Stecher | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| S Benoit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| W Villeneuve | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Goalie
| Player | Saves | Shots | SV% | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D Hildeby | 35 | 37 | 0.946 | 2 |
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Pos | Team | G | A | SOG | Hit | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W Nylander | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.41 | 0.57 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 10.6 |
| 2 | J Tavares | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.31 | 0.56 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 8.9 |
| 3 | J McCabe | defe | TOR vs DAL | 0.17 | 0.25 | 1.1 | 6.9 | |
| 4 | E Cowan | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.25 | 0.40 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 6.6 |
| 5 | M Knies | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.24 | 0.35 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6.3 |
| 6 | M Rielly | defe | TOR vs DAL | 0.05 | 0.22 | 1.1 | 5.5 | |
| 7 | S Benoit | defe | TOR vs DAL | 0.04 | 0.18 | 1.0 | 4.6 | |
| 8 | O Ekman-Larsson | defe | TOR vs DAL | 0.03 | 0.19 | 1.0 | 4.3 | |
| 9 | M Domi | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 4.2 |
| 10 | T Stecher | defe | TOR vs DAL | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.8 | 4.1 | |
| 11 | N Robertson | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.14 | 0.17 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| 12 | M Maccelli | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.12 | 0.21 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 3.8 |
| 13 | C Jarnkrok | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| 14 | S Lorentz | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| 15 | J Quillan | forw | TOR vs DAL | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.