DAL @ BUF

NHL KeyBank Center ·{'default': 'Buffalo'} · SOG DAL 28 · 24 BUF

4–3

SO Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (BUF) / 10 (DAL) games this season

DAL away

home BUF

45% 55%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 1-0

DAL

Away

Metric

BUF

Home

49-32

Record

50-31

60%

Win %

62%

3.4

GF/G

3.5

2.8

GA/G

2.9

WWWWL

Team totals

DAL

BUF

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
J Hryckowian	1	1	2	2	2	1
M Bourque	1	0	1	1	1	0
J Benn	0	1	1	0	0	1
O Bäck	0	0	0	1	0	0
R Faksa	0	0	0	3	3	0
S Steel	0	0	0	0	2	-1

Defense

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
T Harley	0	0	-1	3	0
E Lindell	1	1	0	2	1
T Myers	0	0	0	3	1
L Bichsel	0	0	0	0	3
N Lundkvist	0	0	0	1	0
I Lyubushkin	0	1	0	2	1

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Oettinger	21	24	0.875	3
C DeSmith	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
Z Benson	1	1	2	3	0	2
J Norris	1	0	1	2	0	1
A Tuch	1	0	1	1	0	1
T Kozak	0	1	1	0	4	0
T Pearson	0	1	1	0	2	0
J Quinn	0	0	0	5	1	-1

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
O Power	2	1	2	0
L Stanley	0	0	0	1
B Byram	0	-1	0	0
C Timmins	0	0	2	1
M Kesselring	0	2	0	1
L Schenn	0	1	0	3

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
U Luukkonen	0	0		0
C Ellis	25	28	0.893	3

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2026-04-14) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	R Dahlin	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.21	0.62	3.1		10.7
2	A Tuch	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.37	0.48	2.8	0.9	9.7
3	T Thompson	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.35	0.52	2.7	0.8	9.6
4	J Quinn	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.33	0.38	3.1	0.9	9.3
5	U Luukkonen	goal	BUF vs CHI					8.4
6	R McLeod	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.24	0.49	1.7	0.2	7.0
7	B Byram	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.09	0.46	1.6		7.0
8	J Zucker	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.25	0.33	2.0	0.7	6.8
9	Z Benson	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.23	0.34	2.1	0.6	6.7
10	O Power	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.08	0.41	1.4		6.4
11	J Norris	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.22	0.31	1.9	1.3	6.3
12	M Samuelsson	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.09	0.30	1.4		6.2
13	C Timmins	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.07	0.25	1.3		5.8
14	L Stanley	defe	BUF vs CHI	0.07	0.26	1.3		5.1
15	J Doan	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.18	0.23	1.6	1.2	5.1
16	P Krebs	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.18	0.20	1.5	2.3	4.8
17	B Malenstyn	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.12	0.13	1.2	2.4	3.4
18	J Greenway	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.11	0.15	1.1	1.2	3.3
19	T Kozak	forw	BUF vs CHI	0.10	0.12	1.0	1.9	3.0

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.