MTL @ PHI

NHL Xfinity Mobile Arena ·{'fr': 'Philadelphie', 'default': 'Philadelphia'} · SOG MTL 29 · 25 PHI

2–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MTL) games this season

MTL away

home PHI

51% 49%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-0

MTL

Away

Metric

PHI

Home

48-33

Record

42-39

59%

Win %

52%

3.5

GF/G

3.0

3.1

GA/G

3.0

WLWWL

WWLWW

Team totals

MTL

PHI

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
B Gallagher	1	0	1	1	1	1	3.0
J Evans	1	0	1	3	2	0	3.81
A Texier	0	1	1	0	1	1	3.17
J Veleno	0	1	1	0	5	0	2.29
C Caufield	0	0	0	10	1	-1	9.75
N Suzuki	0	0	0	1	0	0	9.93

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
L Hutson	0	-1	3	0	6.89
A Xhekaj	1	-1	2	5	2.77
K Guhle	1	1	0	3	4.63
J Struble	0	-1	0	0	3.46
A Engstrom	0	-1	0	1	3.01
D Reinbacher	0	-1	0	0	—

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Fowler	0	0		0
J Dobes	21	25	0.840	4

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
M Michkov	1	2	3	8	0	2	6.43
P Martone	1	1	2	5	2	1	9.23
A Bump	1	0	1	1	2	1	3.7
T Foerster	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.83
D Barkey	0	0	0	0	1	0	4.25
L Glendening	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.25

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
N Seeler	0	0	-1	6	1	4.38
N Juulsen	0	0	1	1	1	2.94
E Andrae	0	0	0	1	0	3.01
D.Jiricek	0	0	0	0	0	2.75
O Bonk	1	1	1	0	2	—
H McDonald	0	1	3	1	5	—

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Kolosov	0	0		0
S Ersson	27	29	0.931	2

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	N Suzuki	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.39	0.58	2.5	0.7	9.9
2	C Caufield	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.39	0.45	2.8	0.3	9.8
3	J Slafkovský	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.36	0.50	2.5	0.9	9.3
4	P Martone	forw	PHI vs MTL	0.34	0.40	2.9	1.5	9.2
5	J Dobes	goal	MTL vs PHI					7.6
6	S Ersson	goal	PHI vs MTL					7.3
7	L Hutson	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.08	0.37	1.4		6.9
8	T Foerster	forw	PHI vs MTL	0.27	0.29	2.1	1.2	6.8
9	M Michkov	forw	PHI vs MTL	0.22	0.32	2.0	0.6	6.4
10	I Demidov	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.22	0.34	1.9	0.4	6.4
11	N Cates	forw	PHI vs MTL	0.18	0.25	2.0	1.7	5.7
12	A Newhook	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.16	0.23	1.6	1.0	4.9
13	K Guhle	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.04	0.13	0.9		4.6
14	N Seeler	defe	PHI vs MTL	0.04	0.12	0.8		4.4
15	D Barkey	forw	PHI vs MTL	0.13	0.23	1.3	1.0	4.3
16	J Evans	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.12	0.19	1.2	1.2	3.8
17	A Bump	forw	PHI vs MTL	0.13	0.14	1.3	1.3	3.7
18	O Kapanen	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.09	0.18	1.2	0.6	3.5
19	J Struble	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.03	0.10	0.8		3.5
20	L Glendening	forw	PHI vs MTL	0.10	0.13	1.2	1.7	3.3
21	Z Bolduc	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.10	0.15	1.1	1.8	3.3
22	K Dach	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.10	0.13	1.2	1.9	3.3
23	A Texier	forw	MTL vs PHI	0.10	0.12	1.2	1.9	3.2
24	E Andrae	defe	PHI vs MTL	0.03	0.09	0.7		3.0
25	A Engstrom	defe	MTL vs PHI	0.03	0.08	0.8		3.0

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.