DAL @ TOR

NHL Scotiabank Arena ·{'default': 'Toronto'} · SOG DAL 32 · 27 TOR

6–5

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DAL) games this season

DAL away

home TOR

62% 38%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-1

DAL

Away

Metric

TOR

Home

48-32

Record

32-48

60%

Win %

40%

3.4

GF/G

3.1

2.7

GA/G

3.6

WWWLW

LLLLL

Team totals

DAL

TOR

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
M Bourque	3	1	4	7	1	1	7.22
M Duchene	0	3	3	2	0	2	7.66
J Robertson	1	1	2	5	0	2	14.78
A Hyry	1	0	1	1	1	0	3.98
W Johnston	1	0	1	3	1	-1	9.77
M Rantanen	0	1	1	2	0	0	8.68

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
T Harley	1	1	2	0	7.42
E Lindell	0	1	1	0	6.17
T Myers	0	0	4	0	4.97
I Lyubushkin	0	-1	1	0	3.94
A Petrovic	1	0	0	3	3.87
K Capobianco	0	1	0	0	3.36

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
C DeSmith	22	27	0.815	5
J Oettinger	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
W Nylander	1	2	3	3	1	-1	10.56
M Knies	0	2	2	1	3	0	6.31
M Domi	1	0	1	1	0	0	4.18
J Quillan	1	0	1	2	6	0	2.66
N Robertson	1	0	1	6	0	0	4.04
J Tavares	1	0	1	3	1	1	8.87

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
O Ekman-Larsson	0	0	2	2	4.25
J McCabe	1	-1	1	1	6.86
T Stecher	1	0	0	0	4.09
S Benoit	1	-1	2	2	4.64
M Rielly	0	-1	1	0	5.5
W Villeneuve	0	1	3	1	—

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Akhtyamov	27	32	0.844	6
J Woll	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	J Robertson	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.51	0.88	4.0	0.5	14.8
2	W Nylander	forw	TOR vs DAL	0.41	0.57	2.8	0.7	10.6
3	W Johnston	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.36	0.64	2.3	1.0	9.8
4	J Tavares	forw	TOR vs DAL	0.31	0.56	2.3	0.8	8.9
5	M Rantanen	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.31	0.67	1.8	0.8	8.7
6	M Duchene	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.28	0.45	2.0	0.8	7.7
7	T Harley	defe	DAL vs TOR	0.10	0.41	1.8		7.4
8	M Bourque	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.27	0.40	2.0	1.1	7.2
9	J McCabe	defe	TOR vs DAL	0.17	0.25	1.1		6.9
10	E Cowan	forw	TOR vs DAL	0.25	0.40	1.7	1.6	6.6
11	M Knies	forw	TOR vs DAL	0.24	0.35	1.7	1.5	6.3
12	E Lindell	defe	DAL vs TOR	0.06	0.25	1.5		6.2
13	C DeSmith	goal	DAL vs TOR					6.1
14	J Hryckowian	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.21	0.32	1.5	0.8	5.7
15	M Rielly	defe	TOR vs DAL	0.05	0.22	1.1		5.5
16	T Myers	defe	DAL vs TOR	0.05	0.22	1.1		5.0
17	J Benn	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.16	0.33	1.3	0.8	4.9
18	S Benoit	defe	TOR vs DAL	0.04	0.18	1.0		4.6
19	M Bunting	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.16	0.23	1.4	0.7	4.5
20	O Bäck	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.15	0.26	1.2	0.5	4.4
21	O Ekman-Larsson	defe	TOR vs DAL	0.03	0.19	1.0		4.3
22	C Blackwell	forw	DAL vs TOR	0.15	0.23	1.2	1.1	4.2
23	M Domi	forw	TOR vs DAL	0.14	0.19	1.4	0.3	4.2
24	T Stecher	defe	TOR vs DAL	0.03	0.14	0.8		4.1
25	N Robertson	forw	TOR vs DAL	0.14	0.17	1.3	0.6	4.0

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.