CAR @ PHI

NHL Xfinity Mobile Arena ·{'fr': 'Philadelphie', 'default': 'Philadelphia'} · SOG CAR 26 · 23 PHI

2–3

SO Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CAR) games this season

CAR away

home PHI

60% 40%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-3

CAR

Away

Metric

PHI

Home

52-28

Record

41-39

65%

Win %

51%

3.7

GF/G

3.0

GA/G

3.0

WWWLW

WLWWW

Team totals

CAR

PHI

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
N Ehlers	1	1	2	6	0	1	7.77
B Nadeau	1	0	1	3	2	1	2.69
L Stankoven	0	1	1	3	0	0	7.35
J Blake	0	1	1	3	0	0	6.88
W Carrier	0	0	0	2	3	0	2.21
N Deslauriers	0	0	0	1	11	0	1.83

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
K Miller	0	-1	2	2	6.21
S Walker	1	1	1	0	7.41
A Nikishin	0	0	3	4	4.55
J Chatfield	0	-1	1	0	4.71
C Legault	0	1	2	0	3.39
M Reilly	0	0	0	0	3.83

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
F Andersen	0	0		0
B Bussi	21	23	0.913	2

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
T Zegras	1	0	1	4	2	0	7.49
M Michkov	1	0	1	4	1	1	5.95
N Cates	0	1	1	3	1	1	5.92
D Barkey	0	1	1	3	1	1	3.48
T Foerster	0	1	1	0	3	0	6.55
P Martone	0	1	1	0	3	0	9.54

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
J Drysdale	1	1	0	5.21
T Sanheim	-1	6	1	7.43
C York	1	3	1	5.09
R Ristolainen	-1	3	2	5.88
N Seeler	0	3	2	4.05
E Andrae	0	0	1	2.98

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
D Vladar	24	26	0.923	2
S Ersson	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	P Martone	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.39	0.37	2.9	1.5	9.5
2	D Vladar	goal	PHI vs CAR					9.5
3	C Dvorak	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.28	0.47	2.2	0.7	8.1
4	N Ehlers	forw	CAR vs PHI	0.31	0.40	2.1	0.5	7.8
5	T Konecny	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.24	0.45	2.2	1.6	7.6
6	T Zegras	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.26	0.46	2.0	0.8	7.5
7	T Sanheim	defe	PHI vs CAR	0.10	0.37	1.8		7.4
8	O Tippett	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.28	0.37	2.1	2.1	7.4
9	S Walker	defe	CAR vs PHI	0.12	0.37	2.0		7.4
10	L Stankoven	forw	CAR vs PHI	0.29	0.34	2.1	0.8	7.4
11	J Blake	forw	CAR vs PHI	0.23	0.42	1.9	0.2	6.9
12	T Foerster	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.25	0.30	2.0	0.9	6.6
13	B Bussi	goal	CAR vs PHI					6.5
14	T Hall	forw	CAR vs PHI	0.23	0.31	1.8	0.8	6.3
15	K Miller	defe	CAR vs PHI	0.09	0.31	1.6		6.2
16	M Michkov	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.19	0.38	1.6	0.6	6.0
17	N Cates	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.19	0.30	1.9	1.6	5.9
18	R Ristolainen	defe	PHI vs CAR	0.07	0.31	1.3		5.9
19	J Drysdale	defe	PHI vs CAR	0.06	0.24	1.1		5.2
20	C York	defe	PHI vs CAR	0.04	0.19	1.1		5.1
21	S Couturier	forw	PHI vs CAR	0.19	0.23	1.5	2.1	5.1
22	J Chatfield	defe	CAR vs PHI	0.06	0.20	1.1		4.7
23	J Martinook	forw	CAR vs PHI	0.14	0.25	1.4	0.9	4.6
24	A Nikishin	defe	CAR vs PHI	0.05	0.16	1.0		4.6
25	N Seeler	defe	PHI vs CAR	0.04	0.14	0.8		4.1

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.