DET @ TBL

NHL Benchmark International Arena ·{'default': 'Tampa'} · SOG DET 30 · 22 TBL

3–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (TBL) / 10 (DET) games this season

DET away

home TBL

50% 50%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-1

DET

Away

Metric

TBL

Home

41-39

Record

49-31

51%

Win %

61%

3.0

GF/G

3.6

3.1

GA/G

2.8

LWLLL

WLLLW

Team totals

DET

TBL

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
A DeBrincat	1	0	1	6	0	-1	10.74
D Perron	1	0	1	3	0	1	3.87
M Kasper	1	0	1	4	1	1	3.27
J Compher	0	1	1	0	0	1	5.48
P Kane	0	1	1	1	0	0	9.05
J van Riemsdyk	0	1	1	0	0	1	2.62

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
M Seider	0	-1	1	1	11.84
S Edvinsson	0	0	0	2	6.97
J Faulk	1	-1	0	1	6.59
A Sandin-Pellikka	0	1	1	0	3.64
B Chiarot	1	-1	1	1	4.91
A Johansson	0	1	0	1	3.72

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Gibson	0	0		0
C Talbot	18	22	0.818	4

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
N Kucherov	1	1	2	3	0	0	10.22
C Geekie	1	0	1	1	0	0	2.5
J Guentzel	1	0	1	2	0	1	11.3
O Bjorkstrand	0	1	1	1	0	0	2.73
Z Girgensons	0	1	1	0	2	1	3.81
B Point	0	1	1	2	0	1	7.91

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
J Moser	0	1	2	1	0	5.17
R McDonagh	0	1	1	1	0	4.99
D Carlile	0	0	1	5	0	3.91
E Cernak	1	0	1	2	1	4.43
E Lilleberg	0	0	-2	1	4	4.91
C D'Astous	0	0	-2	2	1	5.65

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Vasilevskiy	27	30	0.900	3
K Konin	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	M Seider	defe	DET vs TBL	0.22	0.89	2.1		11.8
2	J Guentzel	forw	TBL vs DET	0.40	0.69	3.0	0.9	11.3
3	D Larkin	forw	DET vs TBL	0.44	0.58	3.1	1.0	11.3
4	A DeBrincat	forw	DET vs TBL	0.41	0.53	3.1	0.5	10.7
5	C Talbot	goal	DET vs TBL					10.3
6	N Kucherov	forw	TBL vs DET	0.38	0.61	2.6	0.5	10.2
7	A Vasilevskiy	goal	TBL vs DET					9.4
8	P Kane	forw	DET vs TBL	0.35	0.51	2.4	0.5	9.1
9	L Raymond	forw	DET vs TBL	0.29	0.45	2.2	0.7	8.0
10	B Point	forw	TBL vs DET	0.29	0.44	2.2	0.4	7.9
11	S Edvinsson	defe	DET vs TBL	0.10	0.28	1.4		7.0
12	A Cirelli	forw	TBL vs DET	0.28	0.35	1.9	0.9	7.0
13	J Faulk	defe	DET vs TBL	0.10	0.25	1.4		6.6
14	A Copp	forw	DET vs TBL	0.23	0.40	1.6	0.8	6.4
15	G Goncalves	forw	TBL vs DET	0.20	0.32	1.7	1.2	5.8
16	C D'Astous	defe	TBL vs DET	0.07	0.31	1.4		5.7
17	J Compher	forw	DET vs TBL	0.20	0.31	1.5	0.3	5.5
18	J Moser	defe	TBL vs DET	0.06	0.27	1.2		5.2
19	Y Gourde	forw	TBL vs DET	0.18	0.20	1.7	1.9	5.1
20	R McDonagh	defe	TBL vs DET	0.05	0.23	1.0		5.0
21	E Lilleberg	defe	TBL vs DET	0.06	0.22	1.2		4.9
22	B Chiarot	defe	DET vs TBL	0.06	0.15	1.0		4.9
23	E Finnie	forw	DET vs TBL	0.16	0.23	1.4	1.6	4.6
24	C Perry	forw	TBL vs DET	0.17	0.19	1.4	0.5	4.5
25	E Cernak	defe	TBL vs DET	0.04	0.17	1.1		4.4

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.