UTA @ CGY

NHL Scotiabank Saddledome ·{'default': 'Calgary'} · SOG UTA 29 · 23 CGY

1–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (CGY) / 10 (UTA) games this season

UTA away

home CGY

56% 44%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 1-1

UTA

Away

Metric

CGY

Home

42-37

Record

32-47

53%

Win %

41%

3.3

GF/G

2.6

2.9

GA/G

3.2

LWWWW

LLLWL

Team totals

UTA

CGY

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
L Crouse	1	0	1	2	0	0	7.65
C Keller	0	1	1	2	0	0	12.32
B Tanev	0	0	0	2	2	0	2.31
A Kerfoot	0	0	0	0	1	0	4.52
L O'Brien	0	0	0	2	4	-1	2.34
M Carcone	0	0	0	1	2	0	4.87

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
M Sergachev	0	0	0	0	10.79
M Weegar	1	0	3	2	6.39
I Cole	0	-2	1	0	5.2
N Schmidt	0	-1	0	1	4.95
S Durzi	0	-2	2	0	4.76
D Simashev	0	-1	1	2	3.87

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
V Vanecek	19	23	0.826	4
M Villalta	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
M Backlund	1	0	1	2	0	0	7.2
M Coronato	1	0	1	3	0	1	7.21
C Zary	1	0	1	3	0	1	3.5
B Coleman	0	1	1	3	1	0	9.01
M Frost	0	1	1	5	1	0	5.78
A Suniev	0	1	1	0	0	1	3.63

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
Z Parekh	0	1	0	2	0	5.68
O Maatta	0	1	2	1	0	7.21
Z Whitecloud	0	1	1	3	0	8.14
H Brzustewicz	0	0	1	6	0	4.75
B Pachal	1	2	2	1	1	3.89
A Wiebe	0	0	0	1	0	—

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
D Wolf	28	29	0.966	1
D Cooley	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	C Keller	forw	UTA vs CGY	0.46	0.86	2.7	0.1	12.3
2	M Sergachev	defe	UTA vs CGY	0.13	0.89	2.1		10.8
3	D Guenther	forw	UTA vs CGY	0.39	0.58	3.0	0.6	10.6
4	N Schmaltz	forw	UTA vs CGY	0.41	0.52	3.0	0.3	10.6
5	D Wolf	goal	CGY vs UTA					9.2
6	B Coleman	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.35	0.43	2.6	1.5	9.0
7	Z Whitecloud	defe	CGY vs UTA	0.10	0.40	1.6		8.1
8	L Cooley	forw	UTA vs CGY	0.29	0.44	2.0	1.1	7.7
9	L Crouse	forw	UTA vs CGY	0.32	0.31	2.3	1.9	7.7
10	M Coronato	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.25	0.39	2.1	0.4	7.2
11	O Maatta	defe	CGY vs UTA	0.06	0.37	1.4		7.2
12	M Backlund	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.26	0.40	2.0	0.3	7.2
13	M Weegar	defe	UTA vs CGY	0.08	0.30	1.5		6.4
14	J Farabee	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.25	0.33	1.7	0.5	6.4
15	V Olofsson	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.21	0.24	2.0	0.4	5.9
16	V Vanecek	goal	UTA vs CGY					5.9
17	M Frost	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.23	0.26	1.7	1.2	5.8
18	J Peterka	forw	UTA vs CGY	0.21	0.26	1.8	0.2	5.7
19	Y Sharangovich	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.21	0.29	1.7	0.4	5.7
20	Z Parekh	defe	CGY vs UTA	0.08	0.22	1.4		5.7
21	I Cole	defe	UTA vs CGY	0.06	0.23	1.2		5.2
22	R Strome	forw	CGY vs UTA	0.20	0.22	1.5	0.6	5.1
23	N Schmidt	defe	UTA vs CGY	0.06	0.25	1.3		5.0
24	M Carcone	forw	UTA vs CGY	0.18	0.19	1.6	2.1	4.9
25	S Durzi	defe	UTA vs CGY	0.05	0.25	1.2		4.8

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.