MTL @ WSH

NHL Capital One Arena ·Washington · SOG MTL 26 · 32 WSH

1–3

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MTL) games this season

MTL away

home WSH

56% 44%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 3-1

MTL

Away

Metric

WSH

Home

40-43

Record

52-31

48%

Win %

63%

3.0

GF/G

3.5

3.2

GA/G

2.8

LWLLL

WLWLL

Team totals

MTL

WSH

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
C Dvorak	1	0	1	2	1	0
B Gallagher	0	1	1	1	1	-1
J Anderson	0	1	1	2	6	0
C Caufield	0	0	0	3	0	-2
N Suzuki	0	0	0	0	1	-2
A Newhook	0	0	0	1	3	-1

Defense

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit
L Hutson	0	0	1
M Matheson	-1	1	0
A Carrier	-1	3	1
K Guhle	1	1	1
J Struble	-1	0	0
D Savard	-1	0	2

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
S Montembeault	29	31	0.935	2
J Dobes	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
C McMichael	2	0	2	4	0	2
D Strome	1	0	1	3	1	0
R Leonard	0	1	1	3	1	1
T Raddysh	0	1	1	3	1	1
T Wilson	0	1	1	2	5	1
A Beauvillier	0	1	1	3	3	0

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit
J Carlson	2	3	0
M Roy	0	1	3
J Chychrun	2	4	2
R Sandin	-1	4	1
T van Riemsdyk	0	0	0
A Alexeyev	1	1	0

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
C Lindgren	0	0		0
L Thompson	25	26	0.962	1

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	A Ovechkin	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.40	0.51	3.2	1.3	10.8
2	C Lindgren	goal	WSH vs NYI					8.3
3	D Strome	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.28	0.43	2.1	0.2	7.6
4	T Wilson	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.26	0.36	1.9	2.7	6.8
5	N Dobson	defe	MTL vs NYI	0.08	0.34	1.5		6.4
6	P Dubois	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.22	0.32	1.9	0.6	6.3
7	P Danault	forw	MTL vs EDM	0.19	0.31	1.6	0.8	5.6
8	C McMichael	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.19	0.26	1.7	0.3	5.5
9	M Roy	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.07	0.26	1.2		5.4
10	T van Riemsdyk	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.04	0.15	1.0		5.0
11	M Fehérváry	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.06	0.19	1.1		4.8
12	R Sandin	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.05	0.17	0.9		4.6
13	R Leonard	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.17	0.16	1.5	2.1	4.6
14	A Beauvillier	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.14	0.15	1.4	1.5	4.0
15	N Dowd	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.12	0.17	1.3	1.2	3.9
16	J Veleno	forw	MTL vs OTT	0.12	0.13	1.4	2.7	3.8
17	A Alexeyev	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.03	0.10	0.8		3.7
18	B Duhaime	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.12	0.15	1.3	1.3	3.7
19	D McIlrath	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.03	0.10	0.7		3.2

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.