MTL @ WSH

NHL Capital One Arena ·Washington · SOG MTL 35 · 32 WSH

2–3

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MTL) games this season

MTL away

home WSH

37% 63%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-1

MTL

Away

Metric

WSH

Home

40-42

Record

51-31

49%

Win %

62%

3.0

GF/G

3.5

3.2

GA/G

2.8

WLLLW

LWLLW

Team totals

MTL

WSH

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
C Caufield	1	0	1	5	0	1
N Suzuki	1	0	1	7	0	1
P Laine	0	1	1	5	3	-2
B Gallagher	0	0	0	4	3	0
A Newhook	0	0	0	2	0	-2
J Anderson	0	0	0	0	4	0

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
L Hutson	2	-1	1	0
M Matheson	0	0	1	3
K Guhle	0	-1	0	4
A Carrier	1	1	5	2
J Struble	0	-1	0	2
D Savard	0	0	3	0

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Dobes	0	0		0
S Montembeault	29	32	0.906	3

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
A Ovechkin	2	1	3	4	7	2
D Strome	0	3	3	1	0	2
A Beauvillier	1	1	2	5	4	2
T Wilson	0	1	1	2	1	-1
L Eller	0	0	0	1	5	0
T Raddysh	0	0	0	0	4	0

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit
M Roy	1	4	2
R Sandin	0	2	0
J Carlson	-1	0	0
J Chychrun	0	2	2
T van Riemsdyk	1	1	0
A Alexeyev	1	3	2

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
L Thompson	33	35	0.943	2
C Lindgren	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	A Ovechkin	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.40	0.51	3.2	1.3	10.8
2	C Lindgren	goal	WSH vs NYI					8.3
3	D Strome	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.28	0.43	2.1	0.2	7.6
4	T Wilson	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.26	0.36	1.9	2.7	6.8
5	N Dobson	defe	MTL vs NYI	0.08	0.34	1.5		6.4
6	P Dubois	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.22	0.32	1.9	0.6	6.3
7	P Danault	forw	MTL vs EDM	0.19	0.31	1.6	0.8	5.6
8	C McMichael	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.19	0.26	1.7	0.3	5.5
9	M Roy	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.07	0.26	1.2		5.4
10	T van Riemsdyk	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.04	0.15	1.0		5.0
11	M Fehérváry	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.06	0.19	1.1		4.8
12	R Sandin	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.05	0.17	0.9		4.6
13	R Leonard	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.17	0.16	1.5	2.1	4.6
14	A Beauvillier	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.14	0.15	1.4	1.5	4.0
15	N Dowd	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.12	0.17	1.3	1.2	3.9
16	J Veleno	forw	MTL vs OTT	0.12	0.13	1.4	2.7	3.8
17	A Alexeyev	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.03	0.10	0.8		3.7
18	B Duhaime	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.12	0.15	1.3	1.3	3.7
19	D McIlrath	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.03	0.10	0.7		3.2

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.