FLA @ TBL

NHL Amalie Arena ·Tampa · SOG FLA 17 · 22 TBL

6–2

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (TBL) / 10 (FLA) games this season

FLA away

home TBL

68% 32%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-2

FLA

Away

Metric

TBL

Home

47-35

Record

47-35

57%

Win %

57%

3.1

GF/G

3.6

2.7

GA/G

2.7

LLWWW

LWWLL

Team totals

FLA

TBL

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
M Tkachuk	2	1	3	3	0	1
S Bennett	1	1	2	1	7	2
S Reinhart	1	1	2	3	2	0
A Barkov	0	2	2	0	3	0
C Verhaeghe	0	1	1	2	3	0
M Samoskevich	0	1	1	0	4	1

Defense

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
S Jones	0	0	1	2	0
G Forsling	0	0	1	3	0
D Kulikov	0	1	0	1	5
N Mikkola	0	0	0	3	5
N Schmidt	2	0	1	1	2
U Balinskis	0	0	1	1	4

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
S Bobrovsky	20	22	0.909	2
V Vanecek	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
J Guentzel	1	0	1	6	1	-2
B Point	1	0	1	2	0	1
N Kucherov	0	1	1	2	1	1
G Goncalves	0	1	1	0	3	0
C Geekie	0	0	0	0	4	-1
N Paul	0	0	0	3	6	-1

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
V Hedman	1	-1	1	0
R McDonagh	1	0	0	1
E Cernak	0	0	0	0
E Lilleberg	0	-1	0	2
D Raddysh	0	-1	0	0
N Perbix	0	-1	1	0

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
A Vasilevskiy	11	17	0.647	6
J Johansson	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	N Kucherov	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.44	0.83	2.9	0.4	12.2
2	J Guentzel	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.36	0.71	2.3	0.4	10.1
3	B Point	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.39	0.65	2.3	0.4	10.1
4	A Vasilevskiy	goal	TBL vs FLA					9.4
5	B Hagel	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.29	0.64	2.2	0.7	9.0
6	S Jones	defe	FLA vs TBL	0.13	0.55	2.1		8.9
7	V Hedman	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.14	0.50	2.0		8.7
8	S Bennett	forw	FLA vs TBL	0.30	0.38	2.6	1.0	8.3
9	A Cirelli	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.27	0.55	2.0	0.3	8.0
10	C Verhaeghe	forw	FLA vs TBL	0.29	0.32	2.5	1.2	7.7
11	N Paul	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.21	0.38	1.8	0.8	6.4
12	R McDonagh	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.06	0.29	1.2		5.9
13	Y Gourde	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.20	0.29	1.8	2.0	5.9
14	M Samoskevich	forw	FLA vs TBL	0.20	0.26	1.8	2.1	5.7
15	N Mikkola	defe	FLA vs TBL	0.06	0.28	1.4		5.5
16	B Marchand	forw	FLA vs TBL	0.18	0.22	1.7	1.4	5.2
17	E Rodrigues	forw	FLA vs TBL	0.14	0.19	1.5	1.4	4.4
18	J Pelletier	forw	TBL vs PHI	0.15	0.20	1.3	1.2	4.3
19	U Balinskis	defe	FLA vs TBL	0.04	0.19	1.1		4.3
20	G Goncalves	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.15	0.17	1.3	1.6	4.1
21	E Cernak	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.04	0.20	0.9		4.1
22	E Luostarinen	forw	FLA vs TBL	0.14	0.16	1.4	2.6	4.1
23	J Moser	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.03	0.16	0.8		3.9
24	D Kulikov	defe	FLA vs TBL	0.04	0.16	0.8		3.9
25	E Lilleberg	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.04	0.18	0.8		3.7

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.