TOR @ OTT
NHL
Canadian Tire Centre
·Ottawa
·
SOG TOR 20 · 20 OTT
3–2
Final
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Based on last 10 (OTT) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR
away
home
OTT
60%
40%
baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.
Season comparison
H2H this season: 3-2TOR
Away
Metric
OTT
Home
54-30
Record
45-39
64%
Win %
54%
3.3
GF/G
2.9
2.8
GA/G
2.9
WWWWW
L5
LLWLW
Team totals
TOR
OTT
20
Shots
20
37
Hits
44
17
Blocks
17
4
Takeaways
1
7
Giveaways
16
12
PIM
8
Box score
Forwards
| Player | G | A | P | SOG | Hit | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Matthews | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| M Marner | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| M Knies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| W Nylander | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| M Domi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| S Lorentz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| Player | G | A | +/- | BLK | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J McCabe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| M Rielly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| C Tanev | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| S Benoit | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| B Carlo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| O Ekman-Larsson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Goalie
| Player | Saves | Shots | SV% | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Stolarz | 18 | 20 | 0.900 | 2 |
| J Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Pos | Team | G | A | SOG | Hit | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Matthews | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.42 | 0.58 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 10.9 |
| 2 | T Chabot | defe | OTT vs CHI | 0.15 | 0.56 | 2.2 | 9.7 | |
| 3 | M Knies | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.37 | 0.47 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 9.6 |
| 4 | D Batherson | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.37 | 0.38 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 9.4 |
| 5 | J Tavares | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.36 | 0.43 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 9.4 |
| 6 | A Stolarz | goal | TOR vs BUF | 9.0 | ||||
| 7 | R Greig | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.31 | 0.52 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 8.6 |
| 8 | W Nylander | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.33 | 0.44 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 8.4 |
| 9 | T Stützle | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.31 | 0.43 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 8.0 |
| 10 | D Cozens | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.26 | 0.32 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 7.1 |
| 11 | S Pinto | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.30 | 0.36 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 7.0 |
| 12 | F Zetterlund | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.23 | 0.36 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 6.9 |
| 13 | M Rielly | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.07 | 0.26 | 1.4 | 6.5 | |
| 14 | D Perron | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.21 | 0.26 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 6.0 |
| 15 | A Zub | defe | OTT vs CHI | 0.06 | 0.22 | 1.2 | 5.7 | |
| 16 | D Joshua | forw | TOR vs VAN | 0.21 | 0.23 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| 17 | C Tanev | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.16 | 1.0 | 5.3 | |
| 18 | B McMann | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 5.3 |
| 19 | B Carlo | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.9 | 4.8 | |
| 20 | H Thrun | defe | TOR vs VAN | 0.05 | 0.16 | 1.0 | 4.7 | |
| 21 | M Amadio | forw | OTT vs CHI | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 4.5 |
| 22 | J Spence | defe | OTT vs EDM | 0.05 | 0.17 | 1.0 | 4.3 | |
| 23 | D Gilbert | defe | OTT vs CHI | 0.04 | 0.14 | 1.0 | 4.3 | |
| 24 | S Benoit | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.17 | 1.0 | 4.2 | |
| 25 | P Myers | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.13 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.