WSH @ PIT

NHL PPG Paints Arena ·Pittsburgh · SOG WSH 20 · 38 PIT

2–5

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (PIT) / 10 (WSH) games this season

WSH away

home PIT

37% 63%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 1-2

WSH

Away

Metric

PIT

Home

51-30

Record

33-48

63%

Win %

41%

3.5

GF/G

2.9

2.8

GA/G

3.6

WLLWL

LWWLW

Team totals

WSH

PIT

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
A Ovechkin	1	0	1	2	0	-1
C McMichael	1	0	1	1	1	0
P Dubois	0	1	1	0	0	1
T Wilson	0	1	1	2	0	1
D Strome	0	1	1	1	0	0
R Leonard	0	0	0	1	0	-1

Defense

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit
J Chychrun	-1	1	2
T van Riemsdyk	-2	1	0
R Sandin	-2	3	0
A Alexeyev	0	2	2
D McIlrath	0	2	2

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
C Lindgren	0	0		0
C Stevenson	33	38	0.868	5

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
B Rust	2	0	2	4	0	1
P Tomasino	1	1	2	3	1	2
S Crosby	1	1	2	3	0	2
V Koivunen	0	2	2	2	1	1
D Heinen	1	0	1	3	0	0
R Rakell	0	1	1	3	0	0

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
E Karlsson	0	3	0	0
M Grzelcyk	2	3	2	2
R Shea	0	1	2	2
C Timmins	0	1	0	0
R Graves	0	-1	1	1
V Kolyachonok	0	-1	0	3

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
T Jarry	0	0		0
A Nedeljkovic	18	20	0.900	2

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	A Ovechkin	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.40	0.51	3.2	1.3	10.8
2	C Lindgren	goal	WSH vs NYI					8.3
3	B Kulak	defe	PIT vs EDM	0.14	0.42	2.1		8.2
4	D Strome	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.28	0.43	2.1	0.2	7.6
5	T Wilson	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.26	0.36	1.9	2.7	6.8
6	P Dubois	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.22	0.32	1.9	0.6	6.3
7	C Clifton	defe	PIT vs BUF	0.06	0.22	1.3		5.6
8	C McMichael	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.19	0.26	1.7	0.3	5.5
9	M Roy	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.07	0.26	1.2		5.4
10	T van Riemsdyk	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.04	0.15	1.0		5.0
11	M Fehérváry	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.06	0.19	1.1		4.8
12	P Wotherspoon	defe	PIT vs BOS	0.05	0.18	1.1		4.7
13	R Sandin	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.05	0.17	0.9		4.6
14	R Leonard	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.17	0.16	1.5	2.1	4.6
15	A Beauvillier	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.14	0.15	1.4	1.5	4.0
16	N Dowd	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.12	0.17	1.3	1.2	3.9
17	A Alexeyev	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.03	0.10	0.8		3.7
18	B Duhaime	forw	WSH vs NYI	0.12	0.15	1.3	1.3	3.7
19	D McIlrath	defe	WSH vs NYI	0.03	0.10	0.7		3.2

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.