TBL @ NYR

NHL Madison Square Garden ·New York · SOG TBL 27 · 22 NYR

0–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (NYR) / 10 (TBL) games this season

TBL away

home NYR

43% 57%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-2

TBL

Away

Metric

NYR

Home

47-34

Record

38-43

58%

Win %

47%

3.6

GF/G

3.1

2.7

GA/G

3.1

WWLLW

WLWLL

Team totals

TBL

NYR

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	SOG	Hit	+/-
C Atkinson	4	1	0
C Geekie	1	1	-1
N Paul	1	0	-1
B Point	1	0	-2
Z Girgensons	1	0	-1
Y Gourde	3	0	-2

Defense

Player	+/-	BLK
D Raddysh	-2	1
E Lilleberg	-1	1
N Perbix	-1	0
V Hedman	-2	3
R McDonagh	-1	1
E Cernak	-1	0

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Johansson	18	22	0.818	4
A Vasilevskiy	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
M Zibanejad	2	1	3	3	0	3
C Kreider	1	1	2	1	0	3
V Trocheck	1	0	1	2	0	1
J Miller	0	1	1	0	0	1
W Cuylle	0	1	1	3	2	3
M Rempe	0	0	0	2	2	0

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
K Miller	1	2	2	1
A Fox	0	1	4	0
M Robertson	0	2	1	2
W Borgen	0	2	2	0
U Vaakanainen	0	1	0	0
Z Jones	0	0	3	0

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
I Shesterkin	27	27	1.000	0
J Quick	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	N Kucherov	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.44	0.83	2.9	0.4	12.2
2	J Guentzel	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.36	0.71	2.3	0.4	10.1
3	B Point	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.39	0.65	2.3	0.4	10.1
4	A Vasilevskiy	goal	TBL vs FLA					9.4
5	B Hagel	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.29	0.64	2.2	0.7	9.0
6	V Hedman	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.14	0.50	2.0		8.7
7	A Cirelli	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.27	0.55	2.0	0.3	8.0
8	N Paul	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.21	0.38	1.8	0.8	6.4
9	R McDonagh	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.06	0.29	1.2		5.9
10	Y Gourde	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.20	0.29	1.8	2.0	5.9
11	V Gavrikov	defe	NYR vs EDM	0.08	0.26	1.4		5.8
12	J Pelletier	forw	TBL vs PHI	0.15	0.20	1.3	1.2	4.3
13	T Raddysh	forw	NYR vs NYI	0.13	0.17	1.5	0.7	4.2
14	G Goncalves	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.15	0.17	1.3	1.6	4.1
15	E Cernak	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.04	0.20	0.9		4.1
16	J Moser	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.03	0.16	0.8		3.9
17	E Lilleberg	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.04	0.18	0.8		3.7
18	D Raddysh	defe	TBL vs FLA	0.04	0.16	0.8		3.5
19	M Chaffee	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.10	0.15	1.0	2.2	3.2
20	Z Girgensons	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.12	0.15	0.9	2.1	3.1
21	P Holmberg	forw	TBL vs BUF	0.10	0.12	0.9	1.3	2.8
22	C Geekie	forw	TBL vs FLA	0.08	0.11	1.0	2.0	2.7

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.