DET @ TOR
NHL
Scotiabank Arena
·Toronto
·
SOG DET 34 · 20 TOR
3–4
Final
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Based on last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET
away
home
TOR
37%
63%
baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.
Season comparison
H2H this season: 2-1DET
Away
Metric
TOR
Home
39-42
Record
51-30
48%
Win %
63%
2.9
GF/G
3.3
3.1
GA/G
2.8
WWWLL
L5
WWWWL
Team totals
DET
TOR
34
Shots
20
13
Hits
17
16
Blocks
11
4
Takeaways
7
14
Giveaways
19
4
PIM
4
Box score
Forwards
| Player | G | A | P | SOG | Hit | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Watson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| A DeBrincat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| V Tarasenko | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| P Kane | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| M Kasper | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| T Motte | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| Player | G | A | +/- | BLK | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Edvinsson | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0 |
| M Seider | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 2 |
| A Johansson | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 |
| B Chiarot | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| J Holl | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| W Lagesson | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Goalie
| Player | Saves | Shots | SV% | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Talbot | 16 | 20 | 0.800 | 4 |
| A Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Pos | Team | G | A | SOG | Hit | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Matthews | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.42 | 0.58 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 10.9 |
| 2 | M Knies | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.37 | 0.47 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 9.6 |
| 3 | J Tavares | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.36 | 0.43 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 9.4 |
| 4 | A Stolarz | goal | TOR vs BUF | 9.0 | ||||
| 5 | W Nylander | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.33 | 0.44 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 8.4 |
| 6 | M Rielly | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.07 | 0.26 | 1.4 | 6.5 | |
| 7 | D Joshua | forw | TOR vs VAN | 0.21 | 0.23 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| 8 | C Tanev | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.16 | 1.0 | 5.3 | |
| 9 | B McMann | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 5.3 |
| 10 | B Carlo | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.9 | 4.8 | |
| 11 | H Thrun | defe | TOR vs VAN | 0.05 | 0.16 | 1.0 | 4.7 | |
| 12 | T Hamonic | defe | DET vs OTT | 0.05 | 0.18 | 1.0 | 4.5 | |
| 13 | S Benoit | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.17 | 1.0 | 4.2 | |
| 14 | P Myers | defe | TOR vs BUF | 0.04 | 0.13 | 1.1 | 4.0 | |
| 15 | M Domi | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| 16 | J Bernard-Docker | defe | DET vs BUF | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.8 | 3.9 | |
| 17 | N Robertson | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.8 |
| 18 | S Laughton | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| 19 | J van Riemsdyk | forw | DET vs PHI | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 3.3 |
| 20 | C Jarnkrok | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.10 | 0.16 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3.3 |
| 21 | S Lorentz | forw | TOR vs BUF | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.