PHI @ BUF

NHL KeyBank Center ·Buffalo · SOG PHI 24 · 31 BUF

4–5

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (BUF) / 10 (PHI) games this season

PHI away

home BUF

47% 53%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-2

PHI

Away

Metric

BUF

Home

33-48

Record

35-46

41%

Win %

43%

2.9

GF/G

3.3

3.5

GA/G

3.5

LLWWL

LLLLW

Team totals

PHI

BUF

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
M Michkov	2	1	3	6	0	-1
B Brink	1	1	2	2	0	1
T Foerster	1	1	2	2	0	0
S Couturier	0	2	2	1	0	0
N Cates	0	1	1	1	1	1
R Poehling	0	1	1	0	1	-1

Defense

Player	+/-	BLK
T Sanheim	2	0
J Drysdale	-3	2
N Seeler	2	2
C York	-2	3
E Zamula	-1	3
E Andrae	-1	0

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
S Ersson	0	0		0
A Kolosov	26	30	0.867	4

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
R McLeod	1	2	3	5	0	1
J Quinn	1	1	2	3	0	1
J Peterka	1	1	2	2	1	2
A Tuch	1	1	2	2	0	3
P Krebs	1	0	1	5	1	2
J Zucker	0	1	1	0	0	1

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
R Dahlin	0	0	0	1
M Samuelsson	0	0	1	2
C Clifton	1	1	2	2
B Byram	0	1	2	0
J Bernard-Docker	1	2	0	2
J Bryson	0	1	1	1

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
U Luukkonen	0	0		0
J Reimer	20	24	0.833	4

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	M Michkov	forw	PHI vs CBJ	0.41	0.59	3.2	0.3	11.3
2	R Dahlin	defe	BUF vs TOR	0.22	0.60	3.1		11.0
3	S Couturier	forw	PHI vs CBJ	0.40	0.54	3.1	1.0	10.8
4	T Thompson	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.41	0.41	2.9	0.8	9.9
5	T Konecny	forw	PHI vs CBJ	0.33	0.58	2.6	0.9	9.7
6	A Tuch	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.35	0.52	2.4	1.0	9.2
7	T Foerster	forw	PHI vs CBJ	0.35	0.47	2.6	1.5	9.2
8	T Sanheim	defe	PHI vs CBJ	0.16	0.45	1.9		9.0
9	S Ersson	goal	PHI vs CBJ					8.4
10	U Luukkonen	goal	BUF vs TOR					8.3
11	N Seeler	defe	PHI vs CBJ	0.06	0.29	1.3		7.2
12	J.Kulich	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.25	0.30	1.9	0.7	6.5
13	B Byram	defe	BUF vs TOR	0.08	0.31	1.5		6.5
14	N Cates	forw	PHI vs CBJ	0.21	0.40	1.8	1.8	6.4
15	J Zucker	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.23	0.28	2.0	0.6	6.4
16	Z Benson	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.21	0.29	2.0	1.0	6.2
17	R McLeod	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.21	0.36	1.7	0.4	6.2
18	O Tippett	forw	PHI vs CBJ	0.19	0.27	2.1	1.2	6.1
19	B Brink	forw	PHI vs CBJ	0.19	0.37	1.6	0.8	5.9
20	J Drysdale	defe	PHI vs CBJ	0.06	0.24	1.2		5.7
21	J Quinn	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.21	0.26	1.5	0.5	5.4
22	P Krebs	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.18	0.25	1.7	1.6	5.3
23	M Kesselring	defe	BUF vs NSH	0.08	0.23	1.2		4.9
24	J Doan	forw	BUF vs NSH	0.16	0.21	1.7	0.8	4.9
25	C York	defe	PHI vs CBJ	0.05	0.20	1.0		4.8

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.