EDM @ SJS

NHL SAP Center at San Jose ·San Jose · SOG EDM 28 · 18 SJS

3–0

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (SJS) / 10 (EDM) games this season

EDM away

home SJS

71% 29%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-3

EDM

Away

Metric

SJS

Home

47-34

Record

20-61

58%

Win %

25%

3.2

GF/G

2.6

2.9

GA/G

3.9

LWWWL

LLLLL

Team totals

EDM

SJS

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
C Perry	1	0	1	4	0	1
M Jones	1	0	1	2	2	1
J Skinner	0	1	1	2	0	1
A Henrique	0	1	1	1	1	2
K Kapanen	0	1	1	1	0	1
C McDavid	0	1	1	1	1	1

Defense

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
B Kulak	0	0	1	8	0
C Dineen	0	0	2	4	0
E Bouchard	0	0	0	0	0
T Emberson	1	1	2	0	0
J Brown	0	0	1	3	3

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
S Skinner	18	18	1.000	0
C Pickard	0	0		0

Player	SOG	Hit	+/-
C Grundstrom	0	4	-1
W Smith	2	0	-1
N Gregor	2	2	0
N Kovalenko	0	0	-1
B Goodrow	0	1	-1
A Wennberg	2	0	-1

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit
J Rutta	0	1	0
H Thrun	-1	0	1
T Liljegren	-2	1	1
L Carlsson	-2	0	1
J Schuldt	0	1	0
M Vlasic	0	0	0

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
G Romanov	0	0		0
A Georgiev	25	27	0.926	2

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	E Bouchard	defe	EDM vs LAK	0.20	0.68	2.5		10.5
2	C Pickard	goal	EDM vs LAK					9.8
3	R Nugent-Hopkins	forw	EDM vs LAK	0.36	0.46	2.9	0.5	9.7
4	M Celebrini	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.36	0.48	2.7	0.8	9.5
5	D Nurse	defe	EDM vs LAK	0.14	0.53	2.2		9.3
6	T Toffoli	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.33	0.36	2.8	0.7	8.8
7	W Eklund	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.32	0.41	2.5	0.8	8.6
8	W Smith	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.31	0.42	2.2	0.5	8.1
9	T Liljegren	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.09	0.32	1.6		7.3
10	A Wennberg	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.24	0.47	1.6	0.3	6.7
11	A Henrique	forw	EDM vs LAK	0.24	0.33	1.9	0.9	6.5
12	J Skinner	forw	SJS vs EDM	0.17	0.21	1.7	1.2	5.0
13	L Carlsson	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.06	0.18	1.2		5.0
14	L Cagnoni	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.05	0.17	1.2		5.0
15	A Georgiev	goal	SJS vs VAN					4.6
16	V Podkolzin	forw	EDM vs LAK	0.15	0.16	1.4	2.4	4.2
17	M Janmark	forw	EDM vs LAK	0.12	0.19	1.4	1.0	4.0
18	M Vlasic	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.04	0.10	0.9		3.9
19	D Gushchin	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.11	0.15	1.4	0.8	3.9
20	A Mangiapane	forw	EDM vs NYI	0.12	0.16	1.3	1.3	3.8
21	T Emberson	defe	EDM vs LAK	0.04	0.14	0.8		3.7
22	C Lund	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.13	0.14	1.2	0.7	3.6
23	J Schuldt	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.04	0.13	0.9		3.5
24	J Brown	defe	EDM vs LAK	0.03	0.11	0.7		3.5
25	K Kapanen	forw	EDM vs LAK	0.09	0.14	1.2	1.6	3.3

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.