VGK @ VAN

NHL Rogers Arena ·Vancouver · SOG VGK 31 · 17 VAN

4–1

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (VAN) / 10 (VGK) games this season

VGK away

home VAN

44% 56%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-3

VGK

Away

Metric

VAN

Home

49-32

Record

38-43

60%

Win %

47%

3.3

GF/G

2.9

2.7

GA/G

3.1

LWWLW

WLWWL

Team totals

VGK

VAN

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
V Olofsson	1	1	2	3	1	2
J Eichel	1	0	1	2	0	2
P Dorofeyev	1	0	1	7	0	2
C Schwindt	1	0	1	1	3	1
W Karlsson	0	1	1	0	0	2
B Howden	0	1	1	2	1	2

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
A Pietrangelo	0	-1	2	0
S Theodore	2	2	1	0
N Hague	0	-1	1	3
B Hutton	2	1	2	1
B McNabb	0	2	1	1
K Korczak	0	2	0	1

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
I Samsonov	0	0		0
A Schmid	16	17	0.941	1

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
P Suter	1	0	1	2	0	-1
N Hoglander	0	1	1	0	0	0
C Garland	0	1	1	3	1	-1
M Sasson	0	0	0	0	1	-1
A Räty	0	0	0	1	1	-1
B Boeser	0	0	0	1	1	-1

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit
Q Hughes	-1	0	0
F Hronek	-2	1	2
M Pettersson	-1	0	2
V Mancini	-2	2	3
E Pettersson	0	1	1
K Kudryavtsev	0	2	0

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
K Lankinen	19	20	0.950	1
N Tolopilo	8	10	0.800	2

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	K Sherwood	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.54	0.44	3.1	6.0	11.5
2	M Marner	forw	VGK vs BUF	0.34	0.71	2.4	0.9	10.0
3	B Boeser	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.43	0.57	2.3	0.8	10.0
4	C Garland	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.38	0.59	2.3	0.4	9.7
5	J DeBrusk	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.42	0.48	2.4	0.5	9.6
6	F Hronek	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.12	0.59	1.9		8.5
7	N Hoglander	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.29	0.39	1.8	1.0	7.1
8	M Pettersson	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.08	0.35	1.4		6.8
9	D O'Connor	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.23	0.44	1.5	0.7	6.3
10	T Blueger	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.25	0.27	1.6	0.9	5.9
11	A Räty	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.24	0.24	1.7	2.4	5.8
12	L Karlsson	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.20	0.21	1.6	1.7	5.2
13	V Mancini	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.04	0.22	0.9		4.2
14	J Megna	defe	VGK vs TBL	0.03	0.14	0.9		3.9
15	E Pettersson	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.05	0.20	0.9		3.7
16	L Reichel	forw	VAN vs OTT	0.11	0.12	1.1	0.6	3.2

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.