UTA @ STL

NHL Enterprise Center ·St. Louis · SOG UTA 23 · 29 STL

1–6

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (STL) / 10 (UTA) games this season

UTA away

home STL

50% 50%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 1-2

UTA

Away

Metric

STL

Home

38-43

Record

43-38

47%

Win %

53%

3.0

GF/G

3.1

3.0

GA/G

2.9

WWLWW

LLLWW

Team totals

UTA

STL

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
C Keller	1	0	1	2	0	-2
N Schmaltz	0	1	1	1	0	-1
D Guenther	0	0	0	1	1	-1
A Kerfoot	0	0	0	0	2	0
J McBain	0	0	0	1	1	0
B Hayton	0	0	0	1	2	0

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
M Sergachev	1	-1	1	1
S Durzi	0	-2	3	0
I Cole	0	-2	2	0
O Maatta	0	0	1	0
M Kesselring	0	-1	1	1
R Bortuzzo	0	0	0	1

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
M Villalta	0	0		0
K Vejmelka	23	29	0.793	6

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-
P Buchnevich	1	2	3	2	0	2
J Kyrou	2	0	2	4	1	1
B Schenn	1	1	2	2	1	1
J Snuggerud	1	1	2	4	0	1
Z Bolduc	1	1	2	4	0	0
R Thomas	0	2	2	2	0	1

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit
J Faulk	0	0	0	0
P Broberg	0	0	5	0
R Suter	0	0	1	1
C Fowler	2	3	0	0
C Parayko	0	3	4	0
N Leddy	0	0	1	0

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Hofer	0	0		0
J Binnington	22	23	0.957	1

Statlab projections

Lineup from last game (2025-04-15) · per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	P Suter	forw	STL vs VAN	0.48	0.88	2.9	0.9	12.8
2	D Guenther	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.35	0.47	2.7	0.9	9.3
3	V Vanecek	goal	UTA vs TBL					9.1
4	C Keller	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.31	0.52	2.5	0.1	9.0
5	J Peterka	forw	UTA vs BUF	0.31	0.50	2.3	0.4	8.6
6	L Cooley	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.28	0.49	2.1	0.7	8.0
7	M Sergachev	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.11	0.44	1.7		7.8
8	N Schmaltz	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.28	0.37	2.4	0.2	7.8
9	B Hayton	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.23	0.31	1.9	0.5	6.4
10	S Durzi	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.08	0.30	1.4		6.3
11	A Kerfoot	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.20	0.27	1.8	1.0	5.7
12	K Stenlund	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.19	0.28	1.7	0.4	5.6
13	I Cole	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.05	0.17	0.9		5.4
14	N Schmidt	defe	UTA vs TBL	0.05	0.16	1.1		5.1
15	N DeSimone	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.06	0.20	1.1		4.6
16	O Maatta	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.05	0.21	1.1		4.6
17	J McBain	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.13	0.20	1.4	3.3	4.1
18	L Crouse	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.14	0.14	1.3	2.3	3.9
19	N Bjugstad	forw	STL vs NSH	0.14	0.15	1.3	1.3	3.8
20	L O'Brien	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.08	0.09	1.0	2.7	2.6

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.