TOR @ BUF

NHL KeyBank Center ·Buffalo · SOG TOR 32 · 35 BUF

4–0

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (BUF) / 10 (TOR) games this season

TOR away

home BUF

53% 47%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 0-2

TOR

Away

Metric

BUF

Home

50-30

Record

35-45

62%

Win %

44%

3.3

GF/G

3.3

2.9

GA/G

3.5

WWWLW

LLLWW

Team totals

TOR

BUF

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
A Matthews	1	1	2	6	1	2	10.91
S Lorentz	1	0	1	2	3	1	2.8
N Robertson	1	0	1	3	0	1	3.8
M Marner	1	0	1	1	0	2	—
S Laughton	0	1	1	1	3	2	3.48
P Holmberg	0	1	1	2	2	1	—

Defense

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
M Rielly	2	4	0	6.5
C Tanev	2	0	0	5.31
S Benoit	2	5	2	4.24
B Carlo	1	0	0	4.76
P Myers	1	3	1	4.04
D Mermis	0	0	0	—

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Woll	0	0		0
A Stolarz	35	35	1.000	0

Player	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
Z Benson	1	0	-2	6.22
J Zucker	5	1	-1	6.39
P Krebs	0	5	0	5.27
J.Kulich	4	0	-1	6.5
J Quinn	1	1	0	5.39
N Ostlund	1	0	-2	2.63

Player	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
R Dahlin	-1	1	3	11.04
M Samuelsson	0	1	1	4.8
C Clifton	-3	4	2	—
B Byram	-2	2	0	6.5
J Bernard-Docker	0	2	0	—
J Bryson	-1	1	0	3.55

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
U Luukkonen	28	31	0.903	3
J Reimer	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	R Dahlin	defe	BUF vs TOR	0.22	0.60	3.1		11.0
2	A Matthews	forw	TOR vs BUF	0.42	0.58	3.0	1.0	10.9
3	T Thompson	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.41	0.41	2.9	0.8	9.9
4	M Knies	forw	TOR vs BUF	0.37	0.47	2.8	2.1	9.6
5	J Tavares	forw	TOR vs BUF	0.36	0.43	2.8	1.2	9.4
6	A Tuch	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.35	0.52	2.4	1.0	9.2
7	A Stolarz	goal	TOR vs BUF					9.0
8	W Nylander	forw	TOR vs BUF	0.33	0.44	2.3	0.3	8.4
9	U Luukkonen	goal	BUF vs TOR					8.3
10	J.Kulich	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.25	0.30	1.9	0.7	6.5
11	B Byram	defe	BUF vs TOR	0.08	0.31	1.5		6.5
12	M Rielly	defe	TOR vs BUF	0.07	0.26	1.4		6.5
13	J Zucker	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.23	0.28	2.0	0.6	6.4
14	Z Benson	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.21	0.29	2.0	1.0	6.2
15	R McLeod	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.21	0.36	1.7	0.4	6.2
16	J Quinn	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.21	0.26	1.5	0.5	5.4
17	D Joshua	forw	TOR vs VAN	0.21	0.23	1.6	2.8	5.4
18	C Tanev	defe	TOR vs BUF	0.04	0.16	1.0		5.3
19	B McMann	forw	TOR vs BUF	0.19	0.18	1.8	2.4	5.3
20	P Krebs	forw	BUF vs TOR	0.18	0.25	1.7	1.6	5.3
21	M Kesselring	defe	BUF vs NSH	0.08	0.23	1.2		4.9
22	J Doan	forw	BUF vs NSH	0.16	0.21	1.7	0.8	4.9
23	M Samuelsson	defe	BUF vs TOR	0.05	0.22	1.1		4.8
24	B Carlo	defe	TOR vs BUF	0.04	0.11	0.9		4.8
25	H Thrun	defe	TOR vs VAN	0.05	0.16	1.0		4.7

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.