NJD @ BOS

NHL TD Garden ·Boston · SOG NJD 26 · 24 BOS

5–4

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NJD) games this season

NJD away

home BOS

56% 44%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 1-1

NJD

Away

Metric

BOS

Home

41-39

Record

33-48

51%

Win %

41%

2.9

GF/G

2.7

GA/G

3.3

LLLWW

WLWLW

Team totals

NJD

BOS

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
T Meier	1	2	3	5	1	1	9.29
D Mercer	1	1	2	3	0	2	7.5
N Hischier	0	2	2	0	1	-3	8.7
S Noesen	1	0	1	3	2	-4	6.03
M McLaughlin	0	1	1	0	3	0	3.23
C Glass	0	0	0	1	0	0	4.23

Defense

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
L Hughes	0	2	-1	0	0	10.18
B Pesce	0	1	-1	1	0	6.54
J Kovacevic	0	0	-1	0	2	4.77
B Dumoulin	1	0	0	0	2	—
B Dillon	0	0	0	1	3	4.58
S Nemec	1	0	0	0	0	4.07

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Allen	20	24	0.833	4
J Markstrom	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
D Pastrnak	1	1	2	1	1	2	10.56
J Farinacci	1	0	1	1	3	1	—
M Geekie	1	0	1	2	1	1	7.97
M Khusnutdinov	1	0	1	2	0	1	4.19
F Lysell	0	1	1	0	1	0	4.75
E Lindholm	0	1	1	0	0	1	7.96

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
H Jokiharju	0	3	1	0	5.1
M Lohrei	0	0	3	0	5.33
N Zadorov	2	2	2	4	5.4
A Peeke	0	0	3	5	5.08
P Wotherspoon	0	-1	0	2	—
F Brunet	0	-1	5	1	—

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Korpisalo	0	0		0
J Swayman	21	26	0.808	5

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	D Pastrnak	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.41	0.59	2.8	0.7	10.6
2	L Hughes	defe	NJD vs BOS	0.20	0.66	2.5		10.2
3	J Swayman	goal	BOS vs NJD					9.9
4	T Meier	forw	NJD vs BOS	0.37	0.37	2.9	1.6	9.3
5	J Bratt	forw	NJD vs BOS	0.31	0.51	2.5	1.0	9.0
6	N Hischier	forw	NJD vs BOS	0.31	0.59	2.1	1.1	8.7
7	J Allen	goal	NJD vs BOS					8.2
8	M Geekie	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.28	0.48	2.1	1.5	8.0
9	E Lindholm	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.30	0.39	2.3	1.0	8.0
10	V Arvidsson	forw	BOS vs EDM	0.31	0.30	2.4	0.8	7.7
11	D Mercer	forw	NJD vs BOS	0.27	0.37	2.2	0.7	7.5
12	C Brown	forw	NJD vs EDM	0.27	0.35	1.9	0.3	7.0
13	B Pesce	defe	NJD vs BOS	0.09	0.29	1.7		6.5
14	S Noesen	forw	NJD vs BOS	0.22	0.27	1.9	1.6	6.0
15	C Mittelstadt	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.21	0.34	1.7	0.4	6.0
16	P Zacha	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.18	0.33	1.7	1.3	5.7
17	N Zadorov	defe	BOS vs NJD	0.07	0.27	1.2		5.4
18	V Lettieri	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.19	0.21	1.8	1.7	5.4
19	M Lohrei	defe	BOS vs NJD	0.07	0.24	1.3		5.3
20	H Jokiharju	defe	BOS vs NJD	0.05	0.24	1.2		5.1
21	A Peeke	defe	BOS vs NJD	0.06	0.18	1.1		5.1
22	J Kovacevic	defe	NJD vs BOS	0.06	0.21	1.2		4.8
23	F Lysell	forw	BOS vs NJD	0.15	0.22	1.6	0.6	4.8
24	B Dillon	defe	NJD vs BOS	0.06	0.21	1.0		4.6
25	C Glass	forw	NJD vs BOS	0.15	0.21	1.3	1.0	4.2

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.