SJS @ VAN

NHL Rogers Arena ·Vancouver · SOG SJS 16 · 37 VAN

1–2

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (VAN) / 10 (SJS) games this season

SJS away

home VAN

37% 63%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 3-0

SJS

Away

Metric

VAN

Home

20-60

Record

37-43

25%

Win %

46%

2.6

GF/G

2.9

3.9

GA/G

3.1

LLLLL

LWWLW

Team totals

SJS

VAN

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
M Celebrini	1	0	1	3	0	-1	9.5
T Toffoli	0	1	1	2	0	-1	8.8
W Smith	0	0	0	0	0	-1	8.05
N Gregor	0	0	0	1	0	0	—
N Kovalenko	0	0	0	0	4	-1	3.16
A Wennberg	0	0	0	0	0	-1	6.71

Defense

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
T Liljegren	0	0	4	4	7.32
H Thrun	0	0	2	1	—
L Carlsson	0	0	2	0	4.97
L Cagnoni	1	0	1	0	4.97
J Schuldt	0	-1	1	3	3.53
M Vlasic	0	-1	0	0	3.88

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
G Romanov	0	0		0
A Georgiev	35	37	0.946	2

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
L Karlsson	1	0	1	3	1	1	5.17
J DeBrusk	1	0	1	3	1	1	9.6
B Boeser	0	1	1	4	0	1	9.98
D O'Connor	0	1	1	4	1	1	6.33
T Blueger	0	1	1	3	1	1	5.85
K Sherwood	0	0	0	1	3	0	11.46

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
Q Hughes	1	1	1	0	—
F Hronek	0	0	1	1	8.53
M Pettersson	0	1	0	0	6.76
V Mancini	0	0	1	2	4.22
E Pettersson	0	0	0	1	3.71
K Kudryavtsev	0	1	3	0	—

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
N Tolopilo	15	16	0.938	1
K Lankinen	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	K Sherwood	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.54	0.44	3.1	6.0	11.5
2	B Boeser	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.43	0.57	2.3	0.8	10.0
3	C Garland	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.38	0.59	2.3	0.4	9.7
4	J DeBrusk	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.42	0.48	2.4	0.5	9.6
5	M Celebrini	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.36	0.48	2.7	0.8	9.5
6	T Toffoli	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.33	0.36	2.8	0.7	8.8
7	W Eklund	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.32	0.41	2.5	0.8	8.6
8	F Hronek	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.12	0.59	1.9		8.5
9	W Smith	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.31	0.42	2.2	0.5	8.1
10	T Liljegren	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.09	0.32	1.6		7.3
11	N Hoglander	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.29	0.39	1.8	1.0	7.1
12	M Pettersson	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.08	0.35	1.4		6.8
13	A Wennberg	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.24	0.47	1.6	0.3	6.7
14	D O'Connor	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.23	0.44	1.5	0.7	6.3
15	T Blueger	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.25	0.27	1.6	0.9	5.9
16	A Räty	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.24	0.24	1.7	2.4	5.8
17	L Karlsson	forw	VAN vs SJS	0.20	0.21	1.6	1.7	5.2
18	J Skinner	forw	SJS vs EDM	0.17	0.21	1.7	1.2	5.0
19	L Carlsson	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.06	0.18	1.2		5.0
20	L Cagnoni	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.05	0.17	1.2		5.0
21	A Georgiev	goal	SJS vs VAN					4.6
22	V Mancini	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.04	0.22	0.9		4.2
23	M Vlasic	defe	SJS vs VAN	0.04	0.10	0.9		3.9
24	D Gushchin	forw	SJS vs VAN	0.11	0.15	1.4	0.8	3.9
25	E Pettersson	defe	VAN vs SJS	0.05	0.20	0.9		3.7

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.