UTA @ NSH

NHL Bridgestone Arena ·Nashville · SOG UTA 36 · 31 NSH

7–3

Final

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Based on last 10 (NSH) / 10 (UTA) games this season

UTA away

home NSH

60% 40%

baseline_gbm trained on ~5,000 NHL games (54.8% test accuracy). NHL is high-variance — even good models hover near 60%. Treat as a soft lean, not a lock.

Season comparison

H2H this season: 2-0

UTA

Away

Metric

NSH

Home

37-43

Record

29-51

46%

Win %

36%

2.9

GF/G

2.6

3.0

GA/G

3.3

WLWWL

LWWLL

Team totals

UTA

NSH

Shots

Hits

Blocks

Takeaways

Giveaways

PIM

Box score

Forwards

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
C Keller	2	2	4	5	0	2	9.03
L Cooley	1	2	3	1	0	3	7.98
A Kerfoot	0	3	3	0	0	3	5.71
K Stenlund	1	1	2	2	1	3	5.58
N Schmaltz	1	0	1	3	0	-1	7.76
N Bjugstad	1	0	1	4	2	3	—

Defense

Player	G	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
M Sergachev	0	0	2	1	1	7.82
S Durzi	0	0	2	1	1	6.34
I Cole	0	1	2	2	0	5.44
O Maatta	0	1	0	0	1	4.56
M Kesselring	1	1	2	1	0	—
N DeSimone	0	0	0	1	1	4.58

Goalie

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
M Villalta	28	31	0.903	3
K Vejmelka	0	0		0

Player	G	A	P	SOG	Hit	+/-	DK
R O'Reilly	1	1	2	2	0	-2	7.14
M Bunting	1	0	1	5	0	0	7.18
L Evangelista	1	0	1	4	0	-1	7.38
F Forsberg	0	1	1	3	5	-2	8.55
M Wood	0	1	1	1	0	0	3.46
M McCarron	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4.17

Player	A	+/-	BLK	Hit	DK
J Barron	1	-1	4	1	6.99
J Oesterle	0	-1	0	1	4.46
B Skjei	1	-3	1	0	8.39
N Blankenburg	0	-3	3	0	5.81
R Ufko	0	0	0	1	—
M Del Gaizo	0	0	0	1	5.38

Player	Saves	Shots	SV%	GA
J Saros	29	35	0.829	6
J Annunen	0	0		0

Statlab projections

Pre-game projection from per-position MultiOutput regressor

#	Player	Pos	Team	G	A	SOG	Hit	DK
1	D Guenther	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.35	0.47	2.7	0.9	9.3
2	J Saros	goal	NSH vs UTA					9.1
3	V Vanecek	goal	UTA vs TBL					9.1
4	C Keller	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.31	0.52	2.5	0.1	9.0
5	J Peterka	forw	UTA vs BUF	0.31	0.50	2.3	0.4	8.6
6	F Forsberg	forw	NSH vs UTA	0.32	0.41	2.5	1.6	8.6
7	B Skjei	defe	NSH vs UTA	0.13	0.46	2.0		8.4
8	L Cooley	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.28	0.49	2.1	0.7	8.0
9	M Sergachev	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.11	0.44	1.7		7.8
10	N Schmaltz	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.28	0.37	2.4	0.2	7.8
11	L Evangelista	forw	NSH vs UTA	0.27	0.40	2.1	0.5	7.4
12	M Bunting	forw	NSH vs UTA	0.27	0.36	2.1	0.4	7.2
13	R O'Reilly	forw	NSH vs UTA	0.26	0.41	1.9	0.4	7.1
14	S Stamkos	forw	NSH vs UTA	0.26	0.39	2.0	0.4	7.1
15	J Barron	defe	NSH vs UTA	0.09	0.31	1.7		7.0
16	B Hayton	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.23	0.31	1.9	0.5	6.4
17	S Durzi	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.08	0.30	1.4		6.3
18	J Marchessault	forw	NSH vs UTA	0.21	0.35	1.8	0.5	6.3
19	N Blankenburg	defe	NSH vs UTA	0.06	0.26	1.3		5.8
20	A Kerfoot	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.20	0.27	1.8	1.0	5.7
21	K Stenlund	forw	UTA vs NSH	0.19	0.28	1.7	0.4	5.6
22	I Cole	defe	UTA vs NSH	0.05	0.17	0.9		5.4
23	M Del Gaizo	defe	NSH vs UTA	0.07	0.22	1.4		5.4
24	N Schmidt	defe	UTA vs TBL	0.05	0.16	1.1		5.1
25	E Haula	forw	NSH vs BOS	0.18	0.19	1.4	1.5	4.6

Trained on ~126k player-game rows since 2021. NHL single-game variance is high — these are central-tendency point estimates, not floor/ceiling ranges.