NBA games

NY @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
121–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY37233130121
CLE27272826108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CLE
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 41 30 3 6
Mikal Bridges S 39 22 6 2
OG Anunoby S 31 21 7 4
Landry Shamet 28 14 1 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 13 8 7
Josh Hart S 35 12 9 5
Miles McBride 14 5 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 9 2 3 0
Jose Alvarado 4 2 0 0
Jordan Clarkson 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 36 24 6 2
Donovan Mitchell S 38 23 1 4
James Harden S 41 19 5 5
Jarrett Allen S 36 17 7 0
Max Strus 31 13 7 6
Sam Merrill 24 6 3 1
Dennis Schroder 9 3 0 2
Jaylon Tyson 9 3 3 1
Dean Wade S 17 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 James Harden CLE
10%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
23%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.6 3.2 6.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.7 4.8 3.4
3 James Harden CLE 21.0 5.1 5.3
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.3 6.5 1.8
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.0 10.2 6.0
6 Evan Mobley CLE 17.3 7.8 4.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.8 7.7 1.6
8 Mikal Bridges NY 14.3 3.5 2.5
9 Josh Hart NY 12.7 6.8 4.0
10 Max Strus CLE 9.3 4.4 2.0
11 Sam Merrill CLE 7.2 1.4 1.2
12 Miles McBride NY 6.4 1.8 1.2
13 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.9 1.9 1.8
14 Dennis Schroder CLE 5.7 1.7 2.8
15 Dean Wade CLE 5.6 3.4 1.1
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.1 3.0 0.9
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 4.9 1.6 0.9
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 5.0 0.5
19 Landry Shamet NY 4.4 1.2 0.5
20 Jose Alvarado NY 4.1 1.3 0.9
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.8 2.5 1.3
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.8 1.2 1.6
23 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.7 2.4 0.6
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.7 2.5 1.0
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.5 1.5 0.6
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.7 1.8 0.6
27 Keon Ellis CLE 2.6 1.2 0.5
28 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.4 1.5 0.6
29 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.3 2.8 0.2
30 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.7 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.