NBA games

CLE @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
93–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2722212393
NY24293224109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NY
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 39 26 4 1
James Harden S 32 18 6 2
Evan Mobley S 37 14 6 3
Jarrett Allen S 29 13 10 0
Max Strus 26 5 4 3
Jaylon Tyson 10 4 3 0
Sam Merrill 23 4 0 0
Dennis Schroder 18 4 4 3
Dean Wade S 21 3 3 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 1 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Hart S 33 26 4 7
Jalen Brunson S 40 19 3 14
Mikal Bridges S 40 19 3 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 18 13 1
OG Anunoby S 32 14 4 3
Miles McBride 14 5 4 3
Mitchell Robinson 12 4 4 0
Jordan Clarkson 7 4 0 0
Landry Shamet 15 0 4 0
Jose Alvarado 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
16%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
3 OG Anunoby NY
10%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
5 James Harden CLE
9%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
27%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.7 3.0 6.5
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.5 4.7 3.5
3 James Harden CLE 20.8 5.7 5.9
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 18.2 10.0 6.1
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.8 8.6 4.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.9 6.4 1.8
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.6 7.7 1.5
8 Mikal Bridges NY 13.3 3.2 2.4
9 Josh Hart NY 11.5 7.4 3.9
10 Max Strus CLE 9.3 4.5 1.8
11 Sam Merrill CLE 7.3 1.4 1.3
12 Miles McBride NY 6.2 1.7 1.1
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 5.8 1.7 2.6
14 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 3.5 0.9
15 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.3 1.9 1.0
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.0 5.0 0.6
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.9 1.3 1.4
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.3 2.8 0.7
19 Jose Alvarado NY 4.2 1.1 1.0
20 Landry Shamet NY 4.1 1.0 0.6
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 2.4 1.3
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 2.9 2.7 0.4
23 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.9 2.1 0.8
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.8 1.7 0.6
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.6 0.5 1.3
26 Keon Ellis CLE 2.5 1.4 0.5
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.4 2.8 0.2
28 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.3 1.5 0.5
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.3 0.8 0.4
30 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.9 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.