NBA games

CLE @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
104–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CLE163235183104
NY2323233214115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NY
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 41 29 5 3
Evan Mobley S 40 15 14 3
James Harden S 42 15 4 3
Sam Merrill 28 12 1 2
Dean Wade S 29 10 5 3
Jarrett Allen S 35 10 7 3
Max Strus 25 8 2 1
Dennis Schroder 18 3 0 5
Keon Ellis 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 46 38 5 6
Mikal Bridges S 42 18 5 1
OG Anunoby S 34 13 5 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 40 13 13 5
Josh Hart S 31 13 7 4
Landry Shamet 17 9 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 14 4 6 1
Jose Alvarado 7 4 1 0
Jordan Clarkson 16 3 2 0
Miles McBride 17 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"James Harden makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Dean Wade assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 James Harden CLE
10%
7 OG Anunoby NY
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
26%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.5 3.3 5.9
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.5 4.8 3.5
3 James Harden CLE 21.9 6.0 6.1
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.5 9.7 6.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.5 8.1 4.0
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.4 6.0 1.7
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.7 7.6 1.4
8 Mikal Bridges NY 12.0 3.0 2.0
9 Josh Hart NY 10.2 7.9 3.6
10 Max Strus CLE 9.0 4.9 1.8
11 Sam Merrill CLE 7.1 1.3 1.2
12 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.7 1.7 2.4
13 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 3.4 0.8
14 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.2 3.1 0.9
15 Miles McBride NY 5.1 1.2 0.9
16 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.9 1.3 1.4
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.1 2.7 1.5
18 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.8 3.0 0.6
19 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.8 2.4 1.0
20 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.7 1.6 0.7
21 Mitchell Robinson NY 3.6 4.7 0.3
22 Jose Alvarado NY 3.5 1.1 1.3
23 Keon Ellis CLE 2.8 1.6 0.5
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.8 1.8 0.7
25 Landry Shamet NY 2.7 0.6 0.4
26 Tyler Kolek NY 2.7 0.7 1.4
27 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.4 1.5 0.5
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.4 3.1 0.3
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.3 1.0 0.4
30 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.9 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.