NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
111–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32242431111
OKC25282426103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 42 22 7 2
Julian Champagnie S 38 20 6 1
Stephon Castle S 36 16 6 6
De'Aaron Fox S 36 15 0 5
Dylan Harper 27 12 7 3
Keldon Johnson 16 11 3 1
Devin Vassell S 33 11 6 3
Luke Kornet 6 2 4 0
Carter Bryant 3 2 1 0
Harrison Barnes 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 43 35 4 9
Cason Wallace S 36 17 7 4
Alex Caruso 39 12 5 4
Jared McCain 23 12 1 0
Jaylin Williams 26 11 10 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 21 7 5 0
Chet Holmgren S 33 4 4 0
Luguentz Dort S 16 3 1 2
Kenrich Williams 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Jared McCain OKC
10%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
9 Devin Vassell SA
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
28%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.9 3.7 7.7
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.1 11.0 3.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.5 5.6 7.2
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 15.6 4.6 5.6
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.1 8.4 1.5
6 Dylan Harper SA 13.4 6.0 2.9
7 Devin Vassell SA 12.8 4.3 2.6
8 Jared McCain OKC 10.7 2.6 1.7
9 Alex Caruso OKC 10.4 2.8 2.1
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.8 8.1 3.1
11 Julian Champagnie SA 9.8 5.8 1.7
12 Cason Wallace OKC 8.7 3.4 2.1
13 Keldon Johnson SA 8.4 2.6 1.1
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.2 2.8 1.4
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 3.5 1.2
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.3 1.6 1.1
17 Luke Kornet SA 3.7 3.9 0.5
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.6 1.9 0.7
19 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 2.2 0.8
20 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.0 1.4 0.6
21 Nikola Topic OKC 3.0 1.2 1.4
22 Harrison Barnes SA 2.9 1.6 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 1.4 0.9
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.8 1.3 0.6
25 Aaron Wiggins OKC 2.7 1.1 0.6
26 Mason Plumlee SA 2.3 1.9 0.6
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.2 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.