NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
91–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC2231132591
SA35253226118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 15 1 4
Jared McCain S 27 13 2 6
Cason Wallace 20 11 3 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 16 10 5 3
Chet Holmgren S 24 10 11 1
Alex Caruso 21 7 0 0
Kenrich Williams 15 7 6 2
Aaron Wiggins 7 5 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 23 5 1 0
Jaylin Williams 26 4 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 28 28 10 2
Dylan Harper 22 18 6 4
Stephon Castle S 32 17 5 9
Devin Vassell S 26 12 1 2
Julian Champagnie S 25 10 6 2
Keldon Johnson 18 9 3 0
Harrison Barnes 13 6 1 0
Kelly Olynyk 5 6 1 0
De'Aaron Fox S 26 5 5 7
Luke Kornet 13 3 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
5 Stephon Castle SA
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Jared McCain OKC
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.7 3.7 7.8
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.9 11.7 3.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.2 5.5 7.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.0 4.3 5.8
5 Jalen Williams OKC 16.2 4.3 4.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.6 8.5 1.6
7 Dylan Harper SA 13.3 5.9 2.9
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.3 4.3 2.7
9 Alex Caruso OKC 10.6 3.0 2.3
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.9 8.9 3.1
11 Julian Champagnie SA 9.8 5.5 1.8
12 Jared McCain OKC 9.1 2.3 1.1
13 Cason Wallace OKC 8.7 3.5 2.2
14 Keldon Johnson SA 8.4 3.1 1.1
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 5.8 2.7 1.3
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.7 2.6 1.0
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.6 1.4 1.0
18 Nikola Topic OKC 4.0 1.3 2.6
19 Luke Kornet SA 3.7 3.6 0.5
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.7 2.0 0.9
21 Carter Bryant SA 3.5 1.9 0.9
22 Harrison Barnes SA 3.2 1.5 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 1.1 0.9
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.7 1.2 0.6
25 Aaron Wiggins OKC 2.4 1.1 0.5
26 Mason Plumlee SA 2.2 1.7 0.6
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.1 1.3 0.5
28 Lindy Waters III SA 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.