NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
114–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA27313323114
OKC29403226127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 33 24 5 6
Julian Champagnie S 30 22 8 1
Victor Wembanyama S 38 20 6 1
Keldon Johnson 20 15 4 2
De'Aaron Fox S 33 9 4 8
Carter Bryant 5 7 1 0
Devin Vassell S 36 6 4 4
Dylan Harper 25 5 6 3
Jordan McLaughlin 2 4 0 0
Kelly Olynyk 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 32 2 9
Alex Caruso 28 22 2 6
Jared McCain S 33 20 3 0
Chet Holmgren S 30 16 11 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 12 15 4
Kenrich Williams 12 8 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 18 7 4 0
Cason Wallace 31 7 4 5
Jaylin Williams 17 3 4 1
Isaiah Joe 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
12%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
21%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.4 11.6 3.5
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.9 3.8 7.9
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.3 5.4 6.5
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 18.8 4.6 5.8
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.4 8.0 1.7
6 Dylan Harper SA 13.9 5.8 2.9
7 Devin Vassell SA 13.5 4.5 2.6
8 Alex Caruso OKC 9.9 3.2 1.9
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.9 7.9 2.7
10 Julian Champagnie SA 9.4 5.4 1.6
11 Cason Wallace OKC 8.6 3.3 2.1
12 Keldon Johnson SA 8.3 2.9 1.1
13 Jared McCain OKC 8.0 2.3 1.0
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.2 2.9 1.4
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.2 1.6 1.0
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 3.0 1.0
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.2 2.7 1.1
18 Nikola Topic OKC 4.2 1.3 3.0
19 Luke Kornet SA 3.6 3.6 0.5
20 Harrison Barnes SA 3.4 1.8 0.6
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.0 1.3 0.8
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.0 1.8 0.9
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.7 1.2 0.8
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.6 1.1 0.5
25 Aaron Wiggins OKC 2.6 1.4 0.8
26 Mason Plumlee SA 1.4 1.3 0.4
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 1.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.