NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
82–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC1919222282
SA28222825103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 31 19 4 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 18 12 7 3
Isaiah Joe 19 11 5 2
Chet Holmgren S 26 10 9 2
Kenrich Williams 23 10 5 3
Cason Wallace S 21 5 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 21 4 2 0
Jared McCain 24 4 2 0
Jaylin Williams 23 3 3 1
Nikola Topic 4 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 33 8 5
Stephon Castle S 30 13 3 6
Devin Vassell S 33 13 6 3
De'Aaron Fox S 31 12 10 5
Dylan Harper 21 7 5 2
Luke Kornet 13 6 7 0
Keldon Johnson 18 6 3 0
Harrison Barnes 16 5 3 0
Jordan McLaughlin 4 3 1 0
Kelly Olynyk 4 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
5 Devin Vassell SA
11%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
10 Alex Caruso OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
9%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.4 12.6 4.4
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.5 3.7 8.3
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.4 5.6 6.7
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.8 4.2 5.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.7 7.9 1.6
6 Dylan Harper SA 14.9 5.7 2.9
7 Devin Vassell SA 13.5 4.4 2.6
8 Julian Champagnie SA 10.8 5.6 1.8
9 Alex Caruso OKC 10.3 3.3 1.9
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.7 8.0 2.6
11 Keldon Johnson SA 8.5 3.1 1.1
12 Cason Wallace OKC 8.2 3.4 2.0
13 Jared McCain OKC 7.6 2.2 1.0
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.4 2.7 1.4
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.8 1.3 1.0
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.8 2.9 1.0
17 Nikola Topic OKC 4.3 1.4 3.1
18 Luke Kornet SA 3.7 3.3 0.7
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.6 2.4 0.9
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 3.4 1.3 1.1
21 Carter Bryant SA 3.4 1.9 0.9
22 Harrison Barnes SA 3.3 1.7 0.6
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.2 1.4 0.8
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.9 1.3 0.9
25 Lindy Waters III SA 2.7 1.3 0.6
26 Mason Plumlee SA 2.3 1.8 0.6
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.1 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.