NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
123–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC26323728123
SA31203324108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 26 2 12
Jared McCain 27 24 4 1
Jaylin Williams 22 18 5 1
Alex Caruso 24 15 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 28 14 3 1
Cason Wallace 28 11 5 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 21 5 8 4
Kenrich Williams 2 5 1 0
Isaiah Joe 9 3 0 1
Ajay Mitchell S 17 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 39 26 4 3
Devin Vassell S 36 20 7 2
De'Aaron Fox S 31 15 7 6
Stephon Castle S 35 14 5 7
Julian Champagnie S 35 10 5 2
Dylan Harper 17 6 3 2
Keldon Johnson 12 5 2 0
Luke Kornet 13 4 2 1
Carter Bryant 10 3 1 1
Kelly Olynyk 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 2-foot two point shot (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Dylan Harper SA
11%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
66%
Jumper
11%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.8 3.8 7.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.1 12.4 3.6
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.2 5.1 7.1
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.6 3.9 5.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.7 8.0 1.6
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.4 3.8 4.4
7 Dylan Harper SA 14.8 5.7 2.8
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.7 4.3 2.6
9 Julian Champagnie SA 10.7 5.4 1.6
10 Alex Caruso OKC 9.6 3.3 1.7
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.6 7.9 2.4
12 Keldon Johnson SA 8.4 3.0 1.2
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 3.3 1.8
14 Jared McCain OKC 7.2 2.0 1.0
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.6 1.5 1.0
16 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.3 2.4 1.4
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.8 2.8 1.0
18 Luke Kornet SA 3.6 3.6 0.6
19 Carter Bryant SA 3.5 2.3 1.0
20 Harrison Barnes SA 3.4 1.8 0.6
21 Nikola Topic OKC 3.1 1.0 2.7
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 1.2 0.9
23 Aaron Wiggins OKC 2.3 0.8 0.8
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.1 0.8 0.6
25 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.1 1.9 0.7
26 Lindy Waters III SA 1.7 0.8 0.3
27 Mason Plumlee SA 1.3 1.6 0.4
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 1.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.