NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
113–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31203725113
OKC31313426122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 38 25 5 8
Devin Vassell S 38 22 4 1
Victor Wembanyama S 37 21 17 6
Dylan Harper S 25 12 2 3
Keldon Johnson 26 10 5 1
Julian Champagnie S 36 8 5 2
Jordan McLaughlin 7 6 1 1
Harrison Barnes 12 5 3 0
Luke Kornet 11 4 2 0
Carter Bryant 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 30 4 9
Alex Caruso 25 17 3 5
Chet Holmgren S 27 13 4 2
Cason Wallace 25 12 4 4
Jared McCain 26 12 6 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 10 13 3
Ajay Mitchell 28 10 0 2
Luguentz Dort S 16 8 3 3
Jaylin Williams 10 6 3 2
Jalen Williams S 7 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
5 Devin Vassell SA
9%
6 Stephon Castle SA
9%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
8 Dylan Harper SA
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
9%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.3 12.5 3.3
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.6 3.8 7.7
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.5 4.7 6.3
4 Jalen Williams OKC 18.8 4.7 5.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.1 9.5 1.8
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.2 3.9 4.6
7 Dylan Harper SA 16.0 6.2 2.7
8 Devin Vassell SA 11.8 4.5 2.7
9 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 5.4 1.5
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.5 7.6 2.1
11 Keldon Johnson SA 8.1 2.9 1.3
12 Alex Caruso OKC 7.9 3.2 1.5
13 Jared McCain OKC 7.4 1.7 1.0
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.1 3.1 1.7
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.2 2.3 1.3
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.8 1.3 0.8
17 Luke Kornet SA 4.3 4.2 0.8
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.1 2.8 1.0
19 Carter Bryant SA 3.8 2.3 1.1
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 3.2 1.2 1.1
21 Harrison Barnes SA 3.1 1.5 0.6
22 Nikola Topic OKC 3.1 1.0 2.8
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.2 0.9 0.6
24 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.1 1.9 0.7
25 Lindy Waters III SA 1.8 0.9 0.3
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.6 0.8 0.5
27 Mason Plumlee SA 1.4 1.7 0.4
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 1.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.