NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
122–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
SA27242921714122
OKC2717292877115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 49 41 24 3
Dylan Harper S 47 24 11 6
Stephon Castle S 49 17 6 11
Keldon Johnson 22 13 0 0
Devin Vassell S 51 13 6 2
Julian Champagnie S 44 11 9 1
Carter Bryant 14 3 2 1
Harrison Barnes 6 0 0 0
Luke Kornet 9 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Caruso 32 31 2 1
Jalen Williams S 37 26 7 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 51 24 3 12
Cason Wallace 28 8 6 0
Chet Holmgren S 41 8 8 0
Jared McCain 18 7 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 22 5 3 1
Ajay Mitchell 34 4 4 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 12 2 2 2
Jaylin Williams 10 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Stephon Castle SA
9%
8 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.5 10.8 3.0
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.6 3.6 7.1
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.4 4.7 6.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.0 9.9 1.9
5 Jalen Williams OKC 17.6 3.7 5.3
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.1 3.8 4.4
7 Dylan Harper SA 14.6 5.0 2.5
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.2 4.9 2.6
9 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 5.1 1.5
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.0 7.5 2.0
11 Keldon Johnson SA 7.7 3.3 1.3
12 Jared McCain OKC 6.7 1.4 0.7
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.6 1.6
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.2 1.4 0.8
15 Alex Caruso OKC 5.7 2.7 1.2
16 Luguentz Dort OKC 5.7 2.1 1.1
17 Luke Kornet SA 5.3 4.9 0.9
18 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 2.3 1.0
19 Harrison Barnes SA 3.3 1.6 0.6
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.2 2.7 1.0
21 Nikola Topic OKC 3.2 1.0 2.8
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.1 1.3 0.8
23 Lindy Waters III SA 2.7 1.3 0.6
24 Aaron Wiggins OKC 2.7 0.7 0.8
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.4 1.3 0.7
26 Mason Plumlee SA 2.3 2.1 0.6
27 Kenrich Williams OKC 2.2 2.0 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.1 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.