NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
125–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE31333526125
DET2225262194

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 31 26 6 8
Jarrett Allen S 25 23 7 1
Sam Merrill 25 23 1 2
Evan Mobley S 36 21 12 6
James Harden S 36 9 5 6
Max Strus S 28 9 3 2
Dean Wade 21 5 6 1
Keon Ellis 4 3 0 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 4 2 1 0
Dennis Schroder 18 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniss Jenkins S 34 17 3 5
Duncan Robinson 22 13 1 1
Cade Cunningham S 37 13 4 5
Caris LeVert 17 11 2 2
Marcus Sasser 23 9 2 1
Jalen Duren S 26 7 9 3
Tobias Harris S 23 5 5 2
Ausar Thompson S 29 5 7 0
Paul Reed 8 4 4 1
Tolu Smith 5 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Tobias Harris DET
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 James Harden CLE
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
8 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
9 Daniss Jenkins DET
9%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
51%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 28.1 5.1 8.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.3 4.7 3.5
3 James Harden CLE 23.2 5.6 6.3
4 Tobias Harris DET 18.2 6.8 2.1
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.5 7.8 4.0
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.6 8.3 1.4
7 Jalen Duren DET 12.1 8.6 2.1
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.5 2.7 2.3
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 10.1 3.1 3.1
10 Max Strus CLE 9.2 5.0 1.8
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.1 7.8 3.7
12 Paul Reed DET 7.8 4.5 0.8
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.9 1.8 2.3
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.3 1.2 1.2
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 3.4 0.9
16 Caris LeVert DET 5.9 2.6 1.4
17 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.4 3.1 1.0
18 Kevin Huerter DET 5.1 1.8 2.2
19 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.0 3.0 0.6
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.3 1.5
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.6 2.8 1.2
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.3 2.8 1.6
23 Isaiah Stewart DET 3.9 2.5 0.6
24 Keon Ellis CLE 3.9 1.8 1.0
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.6 1.3 0.9
26 Ronald Holland II DET 3.4 2.3 0.7
27 Chaz Lanier DET 2.8 1.1 0.7
28 Javonte Green DET 2.7 1.6 0.4
29 Tolu Smith DET 1.9 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.