NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
115–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27273031115
CLE2526192494

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 42 21 2 8
Paul Reed 16 17 6 1
Daniss Jenkins S 31 15 3 3
Jalen Duren S 27 15 11 0
Duncan Robinson 20 14 2 2
Ausar Thompson S 24 10 9 4
Marcus Sasser 18 9 1 1
Caris LeVert 29 8 3 3
Tobias Harris S 25 6 5 3
Chaz Lanier 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 23 7 4
Evan Mobley S 36 18 6 2
Donovan Mitchell S 37 18 4 3
Jarrett Allen S 30 13 8 1
Sam Merrill 20 10 1 1
Max Strus 30 6 8 0
Dean Wade S 22 3 3 0
Jaylon Tyson 2 2 0 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 2 1 1 0
Craig Porter Jr. 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"James Harden makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
20%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
4 Tobias Harris DET
9%
5 James Harden CLE
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Daniss Jenkins DET
6%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
47%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.0 5.5 8.2
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.5 5.1 3.6
3 James Harden CLE 22.0 5.5 6.5
4 Tobias Harris DET 19.7 6.8 1.9
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.5 7.8 4.6
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.6 8.1 1.5
7 Jalen Duren DET 11.1 8.3 2.2
8 Duncan Robinson DET 10.9 3.0 2.2
9 Max Strus CLE 9.9 5.0 2.0
10 Ausar Thompson DET 9.7 8.1 3.4
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.0 2.9 2.6
12 Paul Reed DET 7.5 4.2 0.7
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.1 1.8 1.9
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.5 0.9
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 1.3 1.2
16 Kevin Huerter DET 6.0 2.1 2.3
17 Caris LeVert DET 5.7 2.4 1.0
18 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.6 3.1 1.6
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.4 1.5
20 Isaiah Stewart DET 4.5 2.8 0.5
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.9 2.5 0.9
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.8 2.6 0.5
23 Ronald Holland II DET 3.8 2.4 0.7
24 Keon Ellis CLE 3.7 1.7 0.8
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.4 1.4 0.8
26 Javonte Green DET 3.2 1.9 0.5
27 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.1 2.3 1.6
28 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.5 1.5 0.7
29 Tolu Smith DET 1.9 1.3 0.5
30 Chaz Lanier DET 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.