NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
117–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CLE2725321914117
DET2931202310113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 43 30 8 6
Donovan Mitchell S 42 21 4 3
Max Strus 36 20 8 1
Evan Mobley S 43 19 8 8
Jarrett Allen S 36 16 10 1
Sam Merrill 21 6 0 1
Dennis Schroder 17 5 0 5
Dean Wade S 23 0 6 0
Jaylon Tyson 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 48 39 7 9
Daniss Jenkins S 41 19 2 3
Tobias Harris S 40 13 6 3
Paul Reed 17 10 8 1
Jalen Duren S 25 9 5 4
Isaiah Stewart 11 8 2 1
Caris LeVert 24 7 1 1
Ausar Thompson S 41 6 7 5
Marcus Sasser 16 2 2 0
Kevin Huerter 3 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniss Jenkins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Daniss Jenkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris DET
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 James Harden CLE
11%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Dennis Schroder CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 31.3 5.4 9.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.4 5.4 3.6
3 James Harden CLE 22.6 5.1 6.2
4 Tobias Harris DET 20.5 7.5 1.8
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.5 7.8 3.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 11.7 8.8 2.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.6 7.5 1.3
8 Ausar Thompson DET 10.3 8.1 3.2
9 Max Strus CLE 9.1 4.4 2.2
10 Paul Reed DET 7.4 4.0 0.8
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.2 2.8 2.5
12 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.7 1.7 1.8
13 Dean Wade CLE 6.3 3.5 1.0
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 1.6 1.2
15 Caris LeVert DET 5.5 2.5 1.1
16 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.5 3.1 1.6
17 Kevin Huerter DET 5.2 1.9 2.2
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.3 1.5
19 Ronald Holland II DET 4.4 2.6 0.8
20 Isaiah Stewart DET 4.3 2.9 0.6
21 Keon Ellis CLE 4.0 1.8 0.8
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.0 2.9 0.4
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.9 2.5 0.8
24 Javonte Green DET 3.7 2.1 0.6
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.5 1.1 1.0
26 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.1 2.3 1.6
27 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.5 1.5 0.6
28 Tolu Smith DET 1.9 1.3 0.5
29 Chaz Lanier DET 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.