NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
103–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET24322126103
CLE21313822112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caris LeVert 31 24 4 3
Cade Cunningham S 39 19 3 6
Tobias Harris S 36 16 8 5
Paul Reed 14 15 4 2
Jalen Duren S 27 8 2 2
Marcus Sasser 3 7 0 0
Ausar Thompson S 19 4 4 1
Duncan Robinson S 29 4 1 1
Isaiah Stewart 7 4 3 0
Daniss Jenkins 21 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 43 5 2
James Harden S 37 24 0 11
Evan Mobley S 39 17 8 5
Jarrett Allen S 32 9 5 1
Dennis Schroder 20 7 2 0
Sam Merrill 16 6 1 2
Max Strus 27 5 4 2
Jaylon Tyson 8 1 3 0
Dean Wade S 23 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes driving layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Tobias Harris DET
14%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
4 James Harden CLE
11%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
7 Jalen Duren DET
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
4%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
34%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 33.1 5.6 7.8
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 5.2 4.0
3 James Harden CLE 22.6 5.3 6.3
4 Tobias Harris DET 20.7 7.4 1.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.7 7.3 3.7
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.9 7.6 1.4
7 Jalen Duren DET 11.3 9.2 1.9
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.1 2.9 2.6
9 Max Strus CLE 10.4 4.4 2.0
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 8.2 3.2
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.4 2.6 2.3
12 Paul Reed DET 7.0 4.3 0.6
13 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.3 1.0
14 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.5 1.8 1.9
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.5 1.6 1.3
16 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.7 2.8 1.7
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.1 1.4 1.5
18 Ronald Holland II DET 4.6 2.3 0.7
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 4.5 3.0 0.5
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.4 3.0 0.5
21 Keon Ellis CLE 4.2 1.9 0.9
22 Caris LeVert DET 4.1 2.0 0.8
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.0 2.6 0.9
24 Javonte Green DET 3.9 2.2 0.6
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 2.3 1.6
26 Marcus Sasser DET 2.6 0.8 0.9
27 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.6 1.5 0.7
28 Tolu Smith DET 2.0 1.3 0.5
29 Chaz Lanier DET 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.