NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET30183328109
CLE32321933116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 27 10 10
Tobias Harris S 38 21 5 0
Duncan Robinson S 36 15 3 4
Paul Reed 10 11 3 0
Jalen Duren S 29 11 4 1
Ausar Thompson S 29 9 7 5
Caris LeVert 17 6 2 0
Isaiah Stewart 9 4 2 0
Javonte Green 11 3 2 0
Daniss Jenkins 18 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 35 10 4
James Harden S 40 19 2 7
Jarrett Allen S 32 18 4 1
Evan Mobley S 36 13 8 4
Dennis Schroder 22 11 1 2
Sam Merrill 14 7 0 0
Max Strus 26 7 5 2
Jaylon Tyson 14 3 2 2
Dean Wade S 17 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 James Harden CLE
10%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Jalen Duren DET
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 28.6 5.5 9.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.2 4.9 4.0
3 James Harden CLE 21.9 5.0 7.9
4 Tobias Harris DET 21.2 7.1 1.8
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.6 7.4 3.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 12.3 9.9 2.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.8 7.9 1.4
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.3 2.8 2.3
9 Max Strus CLE 10.3 4.4 2.0
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 8.1 3.1
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.7 2.9 2.5
12 Sam Merrill CLE 7.3 1.6 1.4
13 Jaylon Tyson CLE 6.9 3.2 1.8
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.6 1.0
15 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.5 1.7 2.2
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 3.3 0.7
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.7 2.7 0.8
18 Keon Ellis CLE 5.1 2.3 1.1
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.1 1.4 1.5
20 Paul Reed DET 5.0 4.1 0.5
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.9 3.2 0.6
22 Caris LeVert DET 4.3 2.1 0.9
23 Javonte Green DET 4.3 2.3 0.7
24 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.9 2.6 0.9
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 2.3 1.6
26 Marcus Sasser DET 2.9 0.8 0.9
27 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.8 0.9 0.6
28 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.5 1.5 0.7
29 Riley Minix CLE 2.5 0.6 0.6
30 Tolu Smith DET 2.3 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.