NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
97–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE1825322297
DET25292528107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 31 6 3
Jarrett Allen S 31 22 7 3
James Harden S 37 10 6 3
Evan Mobley S 36 9 1 4
Dean Wade S 23 8 5 0
Jaylon Tyson 22 7 5 1
Dennis Schroder 20 4 3 5
Keon Ellis 6 3 0 0
Max Strus 28 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 42 25 3 10
Tobias Harris S 37 21 7 0
Duncan Robinson S 37 17 3 3
Daniss Jenkins 26 14 6 4
Ausar Thompson S 24 10 7 2
Caris LeVert 13 8 2 1
Jalen Duren S 33 8 10 1
Isaiah Stewart 15 2 2 0
Ronald Holland II 9 2 2 0
Javonte Green 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dean Wade · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Jalen Duren DET
10%
8 James Harden CLE
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
38%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.7 5.4 9.2
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.6 4.9 4.3
3 James Harden CLE 22.7 4.9 6.3
4 Tobias Harris DET 20.3 7.2 1.9
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.4 9.2 3.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.7 9.9 2.7
7 Duncan Robinson DET 11.6 2.8 2.3
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.3 8.2 1.3
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.5 7.9 3.7
10 Max Strus CLE 10.0 4.4 1.9
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 7.8 3.4 2.1
12 Sam Merrill CLE 7.5 1.8 1.4
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.1 2.7 2.5
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.3 3.4 1.1
15 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.2 1.7 1.8
16 Ronald Holland II DET 6.2 2.6 0.9
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 3.3 0.7
18 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.3 3.4 0.7
19 Paul Reed DET 5.2 4.2 0.6
20 Keon Ellis CLE 5.1 2.5 1.3
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.5 1.5
22 Javonte Green DET 4.8 2.4 0.8
23 Caris LeVert DET 4.5 2.2 1.2
24 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.8 2.6 0.9
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 2.3 1.6
26 Marcus Sasser DET 3.0 1.0 0.9
27 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.5 1.5 0.7
28 Tolu Smith DET 2.3 1.5 0.5
29 Chaz Lanier DET 2.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.