NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
101–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE21253025101
DET37222428111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 23 4 2
James Harden S 35 22 8 7
Max Strus 28 19 5 2
Evan Mobley S 35 14 9 5
Dennis Schroder 16 9 1 3
Dean Wade S 28 5 3 1
Thomas Bryant 10 4 0 0
Keon Ellis 11 3 3 0
Jarrett Allen S 18 2 3 1
Jaylon Tyson 18 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 42 23 3 7
Tobias Harris S 39 20 8 1
Duncan Robinson S 28 19 0 2
Daniss Jenkins 29 12 7 3
Ausar Thompson S 33 11 8 5
Jalen Duren S 35 11 12 4
Ronald Holland II 10 6 1 0
Isaiah Stewart 13 6 3 1
Javonte Green 3 3 1 0
Caris LeVert 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 3-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden CLE
12%
2 Tobias Harris DET
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Jalen Duren DET
10%
8 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.1 5.7 8.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.7 5.2 4.3
3 James Harden CLE 22.9 4.5 6.2
4 Tobias Harris DET 19.7 6.8 2.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.3 8.6 3.5
6 Jalen Duren DET 14.5 9.4 2.8
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.0 9.1 1.3
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.9 2.9 2.3
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.4 7.6 3.4
10 Max Strus CLE 9.3 4.0 1.9
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 9.0 4.0 2.1
12 Sam Merrill CLE 8.1 1.8 1.7
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.8 1.7 2.6
14 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.8 2.5 3.0
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.3 3.4 1.1
16 Paul Reed DET 6.0 4.6 0.8
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 2.5 0.9
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.8 3.2 0.8
19 Javonte Green DET 5.1 2.6 0.8
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.0 3.7 0.7
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.0 1.4 1.5
22 Keon Ellis CLE 4.1 2.0 1.0
23 Caris LeVert DET 4.0 1.8 1.2
24 Marcus Sasser DET 3.9 1.3 1.2
25 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.9 2.6 0.8
26 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 2.3 1.6
27 Tolu Smith DET 3.1 1.9 0.8
28 Chaz Lanier DET 3.0 1.0 0.6
29 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.6 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.