NBA games

OKC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
115–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC21283135115
LAL26193926110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 35 1 8
Ajay Mitchell S 33 28 3 4
Chet Holmgren S 35 16 9 0
Jared McCain 16 13 2 0
Alex Caruso 22 9 4 1
Luguentz Dort S 31 6 2 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 5 10 5
Cason Wallace 19 3 2 0
Isaiah Joe 7 0 0 1
Jaylin Williams 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 43 27 7 6
Rui Hachimura S 43 25 5 2
LeBron James S 40 24 12 3
Jaxson Hayes 27 18 5 1
Deandre Ayton S 21 6 3 1
Marcus Smart S 36 5 2 3
Luke Kennard 24 5 2 2
Adou Thiero 3 0 0 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
3 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.2 3.9 7.1
2 LeBron James LAL 24.3 6.0 7.5
3 Austin Reaves LAL 21.4 4.4 6.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.5 9.6 2.0
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.8 4.4 1.8
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC 15.0 3.7 4.5
7 Marcus Smart LAL 14.0 4.0 5.8
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.8 9.9 1.2
9 Luke Kennard LAL 11.7 3.3 2.4
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.6 7.7 1.8
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.5 1.8 1.1
12 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 3.2 2.0
13 Jared McCain OKC 7.8 1.8 1.0
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.3 2.4 1.4
15 Alex Caruso OKC 6.1 3.0 1.4
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 3.2 1.0
17 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.8 1.1 0.7
18 Nikola Topic OKC 4.8 1.6 3.3
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.7 3.3 1.5
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.2 1.3 1.1
21 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.8 1.5 0.8
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.6 2.6 1.0
23 Jake LaRavia LAL 3.5 2.3 0.9
24 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.2 1.1
25 Adou Thiero LAL 3.2 2.0 0.7
26 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.1 3.1 0.8
27 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.3 1.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.