NBA games

OKC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
131–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31263341131
LAL25342029108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAL
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ajay Mitchell S 30 24 4 10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 23 4 9
Chet Holmgren S 31 18 9 1
Cason Wallace 25 16 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 12 9 2
Isaiah Joe 18 12 5 2
Luguentz Dort S 20 10 3 0
Alex Caruso 20 6 2 2
Aaron Wiggins 3 4 0 0
Jaylin Williams 13 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rui Hachimura S 39 21 5 4
LeBron James S 37 19 6 8
Luke Kennard 29 18 2 2
Austin Reaves S 39 17 3 9
Marcus Smart S 32 10 3 3
Deandre Ayton S 24 10 6 0
Nick Smith Jr. 4 6 0 0
Adou Thiero 13 4 8 1
Bronny James 4 2 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 9 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.7 3.9 7.1
2 LeBron James LAL 25.2 6.1 7.8
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.1 4.5 5.5
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.3 9.2 1.8
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.8 4.1 1.7
6 Marcus Smart LAL 14.0 4.3 6.1
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 13.2 3.5 3.6
8 Luke Kennard LAL 12.1 3.2 2.4
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.8 10.0 1.2
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.6 7.4 1.7
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.1 1.5 0.9
12 Jared McCain OKC 7.7 1.8 1.0
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 3.4 2.0
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.6 3.2 1.1
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.4 2.3 1.4
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.2 2.8 1.4
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.9 3.4 1.5
18 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.9 1.3 0.7
19 Nikola Topic OKC 4.9 1.6 3.6
20 Jake LaRavia LAL 4.4 2.7 1.1
21 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.1 1.5 1.2
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.0 2.8 1.0
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.9 1.5 0.7
24 Bronny James LAL 3.9 1.3 1.3
25 Adou Thiero LAL 3.2 1.6 0.6
26 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.1 3.2 0.8
27 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.3 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.