NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL23352227107
OKC27303632125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 38 31 2 6
LeBron James S 38 23 2 6
Rui Hachimura S 39 16 4 2
Marcus Smart S 34 14 4 5
Luke Kennard 26 10 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 15 6 3 2
Deandre Ayton S 27 3 10 0
Nick Smith Jr. 2 2 0 1
Dalton Knecht 2 2 1 0
Jake LaRavia 10 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 22 2 2
Chet Holmgren S 33 22 9 3
Ajay Mitchell S 30 20 3 6
Jared McCain 18 18 0 0
Cason Wallace 31 12 2 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 10 9 1
Jaylin Williams 15 7 2 1
Alex Caruso 22 5 4 4
Isaiah Joe 9 4 0 3
Luguentz Dort S 23 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ajay Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Ajay Mitchell makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
18%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.2 4.2 7.4
2 LeBron James LAL 25.4 6.5 8.4
3 Austin Reaves LAL 21.6 4.8 5.4
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.1 9.2 1.8
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.4 4.0 1.7
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.7 3.2 3.2
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.6 10.0 1.3
8 Marcus Smart LAL 12.5 3.9 5.4
9 Luke Kennard LAL 12.4 3.3 3.3
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.2 7.7 1.7
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.5 1.5 0.8
12 Jared McCain OKC 7.0 1.6 1.1
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.9 2.5 1.5
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.9 3.3 1.8
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.4 3.2 1.1
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.1 2.7 1.5
17 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.6 3.2 1.4
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.9 4.3 1.6
19 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.7 1.2 0.7
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.6 2.9 1.2
21 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.5 1.4 1.3
22 Bronny James LAL 4.0 1.3 1.4
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.6 1.3 0.7
24 Nikola Topic OKC 3.6 1.1 3.2
25 Adou Thiero LAL 3.0 1.3 0.6
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.4 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.