NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
90–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2627191890
OKC31302324108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 27 4 6
Rui Hachimura S 37 18 2 2
Marcus Smart S 32 12 4 7
Deandre Ayton S 27 10 12 2
Austin Reaves S 36 8 5 6
Luke Kennard 29 7 5 1
Jaxson Hayes 16 3 6 1
Jake LaRavia 14 3 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 6 2 1 0
Bronny James 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 31 24 12 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 18 2 6
Ajay Mitchell S 28 18 2 4
Jared McCain 15 12 2 2
Isaiah Joe 11 9 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 8 9 4
Luguentz Dort S 28 6 3 4
Cason Wallace 19 5 4 2
Alex Caruso 20 5 2 2
Jaylin Williams 20 3 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"LeBron James makes driving layup (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.3 7.1
2 LeBron James LAL 25.3 7.0 8.9
3 Austin Reaves LAL 21.8 4.5 5.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.6 8.6 1.7
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.4 4.3 1.6
6 Luke Kennard LAL 12.7 3.1 3.7
7 Marcus Smart LAL 12.4 3.6 5.3
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.1 8.9 1.2
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC 11.3 3.1 3.0
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.4 1.4 0.6
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.3 3.3 0.9
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.3 7.8 1.4
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.2 1.9 1.2
14 Cason Wallace OKC 5.5 2.6 1.5
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.3 3.5 1.4
16 Alex Caruso OKC 4.7 2.6 1.1
17 Jared McCain OKC 4.7 1.2 0.8
18 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.2 1.0 0.6
19 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.1 1.3
20 Nikola Topic OKC 4.1 1.2 3.2
21 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.0 1.2 1.0
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.5 3.1 0.8
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.5 3.2 1.3
24 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.5 2.7 1.0
25 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.4 1.2 0.6
26 Adou Thiero LAL 2.7 1.1 0.5
27 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.5 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.