NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
144–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY43384122144
PHI24332631114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles McBride S 29 25 4 0
Jalen Brunson S 28 22 4 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 20 17 4 10
Josh Hart S 29 17 9 1
Mikal Bridges S 28 12 4 6
Landry Shamet 11 12 0 0
Jordan Clarkson 8 7 1 3
Jose Alvarado 10 7 3 1
Mitchell Robinson 16 6 6 0
Jeremy Sochan 9 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 28 24 5 4
Tyrese Maxey S 33 17 2 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 26 10 4 0
Dalen Terry 12 9 1 3
VJ Edgecombe S 30 8 6 7
Justin Edwards 17 8 1 1
Johni Broome 3 7 1 1
Adem Bona 10 7 2 0
Paul George S 27 7 1 2
Quentin Grimes 16 6 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
17%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
7 Paul George PHI
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
44%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.1 3.2 6.3
2 Joel Embiid PHI 26.0 8.0 4.8
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.6 3.9 6.1
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.7 10.5 6.0
5 Paul George PHI 17.5 4.1 3.5
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.2 5.7 3.2
7 Mikal Bridges NY 12.7 3.1 2.0
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.7 5.6 1.4
9 Josh Hart NY 10.6 8.0 4.2
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 7.6 2.9 2.1
11 Miles McBride NY 6.5 1.7 1.3
12 Jose Alvarado NY 5.5 1.9 1.6
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.4 2.5 0.9
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.4 6.2 0.6
15 Andre Drummond PHI 4.7 3.6 0.8
16 Justin Edwards PHI 4.5 1.9 0.8
17 Jeremy Sochan NY 4.4 2.4 0.8
18 Landry Shamet NY 4.4 1.4 0.7
19 Tyler Kolek NY 4.4 1.4 1.6
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 4.0 4.5 0.6
21 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.7 1.6 0.7
22 Dominick Barlow PHI 3.3 2.1 0.5
23 Adem Bona PHI 3.3 2.5 0.6
24 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 3.2 1.3 0.6
25 Trendon Watford PHI 3.2 1.3 0.6
26 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.2 1.6 1.1
27 Dalen Terry PHI 2.8 1.2 0.7
28 Jabari Walker PHI 2.4 1.1 0.4
29 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.7 0.8 0.4
30 Trey Jemison III NY 1.4 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.