NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
108–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27332523108
PHI3121241894

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 33 5 9
Mikal Bridges S 37 23 3 1
Landry Shamet 26 15 3 0
Josh Hart S 40 12 11 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 26 8 12 7
Mitchell Robinson 19 6 6 0
Jordan Clarkson 13 4 5 3
Jose Alvarado 8 3 0 0
Miles McBride S 21 3 0 2
Jeremy Sochan 2 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 36 22 8 1
Joel Embiid S 35 18 6 5
Tyrese Maxey S 44 17 2 7
Paul George S 38 15 5 3
VJ Edgecombe S 40 11 7 4
Quentin Grimes 22 6 2 2
Trendon Watford 2 3 0 0
Dominick Barlow 12 2 1 0
Jabari Walker 2 0 0 0
Dalen Terry 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
13%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
9%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.2 8.0 5.0
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.3 2.8 6.2
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.4 4.0 5.9
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.8 10.4 5.7
5 Paul George PHI 18.2 4.2 3.5
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.4 6.2 2.8
7 Mikal Bridges NY 11.8 2.9 2.4
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.5 5.3 1.4
9 Josh Hart NY 11.4 7.2 4.2
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 7.4 3.0 2.1
11 Miles McBride NY 6.3 1.7 1.2
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.9 6.7 0.6
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.7 2.2 0.9
14 Andre Drummond PHI 5.5 4.4 1.0
15 Jose Alvarado NY 5.5 2.0 1.9
16 Jeremy Sochan NY 4.4 2.2 0.8
17 Justin Edwards PHI 4.3 1.9 0.7
18 Tyler Kolek NY 4.1 1.2 2.1
19 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.8 4.4 0.6
20 Landry Shamet NY 3.6 1.2 0.7
21 Adem Bona PHI 3.6 2.9 0.7
22 Dominick Barlow PHI 3.4 2.2 0.5
23 Trendon Watford PHI 3.2 1.3 0.8
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.2 1.3 0.6
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.0 1.4 1.1
26 Dalen Terry PHI 2.3 1.0 0.7
27 Jabari Walker PHI 2.3 1.3 0.4
28 Johni Broome PHI 1.6 1.4 0.5
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.